The Toronto Maple Leafs are racking up wins at an unprecedented rate (for them). With only four games to go, the Leafs are more or less cruising to their first ever Atlantic Division title and things are going great.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are 9-2-1 in their last 12 games. They are fifth overall, and have a decent chance of finishing as high as third. By any standard, it has been a great season.
Since the NHL came back from the 4 Nations break, the Leafs are 15-6-2, and have picked up just under 70% of their points. They are the sixth best team in the NHL over this period, more or less putting up the same results they put up before the break.
The question is, then: how much should the Leafs be concerned about regression? Regression, for those who are not sure, is when a team's results move back in line with what the underlying statistics say those results should be.
The Leafs have been getting great results, but do the numbers back those results up? (stats from naturalstattrick.com).
Should the Toronto Maple Leafs still be worried about a hidden saboteur?
Since the break, the Leafs are ranked 29th in the NHL by Expected Goals Percentage. This stat correlates heavily to actually winning games, and the long-term prospects of a team ranked 29th are not good in any way.
The Leafs were ranked 20th before the break. So statistically, they have played much worse since the 4 Nations ended, but they've gotten basically the same results. This might be reassuring to some, but in the NHL you need nearly a full season of games to get a decent sample size.
The Leafs were 4th in the NHL in save-percentage before the break, and tenth after it. Their elite goaltending has hidden many flaws, and combined with the Leafs star's ability to score on a higher percentage of their shots than most other teams, it has allowed the Leafs to get solid results.
But compared to Winnipeg who are first in points, first in save-percentage and sixth in expected-goals, the Leafs just aren't even close.
Disregarding other teams, the Leafs only concern should be with themselves. They have been one of the NHL's worst teams since the 4 Nations break. Here is where they rank in various statistics since then: Puck Possession (32nd), Percentage of total Shots (27th), Expected Goals (29th), Percentage of total Scoring Chances (29th), Percentage of Dangerous Chances (22nd).
By comparison, the stat that measures luck is PDO. This is the combined shooting and save percentage of a team and because it will always revert to 100 given a long enough timeline, we can measure luck by looking at this number. Since the break, the Leafs rank 4th in the NHL in PDO.
Regression is coming. The Leafs have the most inflated record in the NHL and while you shouldn't care as long as they keep winning, the math says they won't keep winning for much longer and are due to go into the tank at any time. Of course, teams have outrun regression all the way to a Championship, and there's always the possibility that the Leafs somehow are the first team ever to defy the stats longterm.
Don't shoot the messenger.