The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the 2024-2025 season most likely being considered on the outside of the top contenders for a title. The defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers are the top choices to be the last team standing.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are considered a top-ten team, but the league's prognosticators are underrating them because of their (considerably luck-based) playoff failures. If anything, you'd think the Leafs are due for a better playoff performance, and a bit of luck in their favor. Not to mention their star filled roster gives them one of the highest floors of any team in the game.
Toronto's history of playoff failure, the division they play in, and their stars' erratic playoff production diminish the Maple Leafs odds in the eyes of bettors and commenttors.
While the Leafs did not wow anyone with their moves over the offseason, they are in a better position now than they were a year ago to go on a deep postseason run. The coming year represents their best title opportunity during the Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner era.
The NHL lacks dominant teams
Gary Bettman's NHL is full of parity. It's a small sample size, but there has been a different Stanley Cup champion in the last four years.
Before that, there were repeat winners like the Tampa Bay Lightning and Pittsburgh Penguins. The Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings won multiple cups over a few years.
Title winners during the salary cap era have followed a similar formula; commit to two or three star players and build the roster around them. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang led the Penguins. Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Andrei Vasilevskiy did the same for the Lightning.
Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Duncan Keith were the core of those Blackhawks teams while the Kings were built around Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, and Jonathan Quick.
The Washington Capitals Cup-winning edition of 2018 had Alex Ovechkin, Niklas Backstrom, and John Carlson. It took them numerous years (and many previous playoff disappointments) to get there. Nathan MacKinnon's Colorado Avalanche was the same.
The Edmonton Oilers have committed to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for years. They came agonizingly close last year, losing the final to the Panthers.
The Capitals, Avalanche, and Oilers examples provide hope for the Leafs. Toronto has a core as strong as any team in the NHL with Matthews, Marner, and William Nylander. Based on the history of the salary cap era, teams with a strong core eventually find the formula to break through and win a title.
Atlantic Division Rivals Lost Key Players
Change is afoot in the Atlantic Division. The Maple Leafs main rivals for the division title lost key players during the offseason.
Steven Stamkos left the Lightning for the Nashville Predators. Linus Ullmark and Jake Debrusk left the Boston Bruins. The Panthers lost Brandon Montour, Nick Cousins, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Anthony Stolarz (the latter two to the Leafs).
Each team brought in replacements for the departed players, but it remains to be determined if they improved. The new acquisitions will need time to get acclimated.
The Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, and Montreal Canadiens are not yet ready to challenge for the division. The Bruins, Panthers, and Lightning are all vulnerable. The 2024-2025 season is the optimal time for the Maple Leafs to finally win the division.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a favorable window
The Maple Leafs best players have entered their prime. Matthews, Nylander, and Marner have established themselves as star players, but could potentially reach greater heights.
Matthews narrowly missed seventy goals last season. Nylander's production has increased year-over-year for the past three seasons. Marner is a consistent 100 point-pace player who has never hit the century mark due to a variety of unlucky reasons, but he's over-due to finally do so.
Both Matthews and Marner figure to be highly motivated entering this season. Matthews will be further inspired by the captain's "C" on his jersey. After being scrutinized all offseason, Marner will be incentivized to head towards free agency in search of a new deal with the Leafs or another team.
This Maple Leafs edition also has a higher ceiling than in recent years. A fresh perspective comes with the hiring of new coach Craig Berube.
The Leafs have young, talented players ready to complement their stars. Matthew Knies, Joseph Woll, and Easton Cowan can elevate the team to new heights.
League parity, the peak years of their star players, and a boost from their youth give the Toronto Maple Leafs their best title opportunity in years.