Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Atlantic Division
A divisional title is the tonic to lead the Leafs to playoff success.
It's been 25 years since the Toronto Maple Leafs won their division, excluding the 2020-2021 pandemic season when they won the temporary group of all-Canadian teams. It's an underrated dubious distinction for a franchise saddled with the longest current Stanley Cup drought in the National Hockey League.
The seven first-round playoff exits and only one series win during the Auston Matthews era are well-documented. The Toronto Maple Leafs have lost six consecutive deciding game 7s, dating to 2013. All of them were on the road, the last five during the Matthews era.
The Leafs are bringing back the same core of players but changes in goal, defense, and coaching bring hope for a new strategy; winning the division and the home-ice advantage that comes with it.
There are many reasons why the Maple Leafs can win their division and create an easier path to playoff success.
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Atlantic Division
Pat Quinn, Mats Sundin, and Curtis Joseph's division-winning Leafs of 1999-2000 overachieved. After that decorated trio, the drop-off in talent was significant. This version of the Maple Leafs is deeper than the Quinn-led team.
The Leafs are regarded outside the top 5 contenders for a Stanley Cup title but they are safely inside the top ten, and their ceiling feels much higher. This edition of the team has much more talent than a year ago.
The Maple Leafs of 2024-2025 will begin this season in a much better place. Recently minted captain Matthews is a top two to five player in the league. He is supported by all-star forwards William Nylander and Mitch Marner.
The demoted John Tavares will be eager to prove his worth. A big season from Marner could give him a larger payday when he hits unrestricted free agency next summer.
The Leafs also made significant improvements to their blue line. They have young talent ready to ascend, goaltending depth, plus a new leader behind the bench. Toronto has many reasons to believe they can finish atop the Atlantic Division.
Leafs have improved their biggest weakness
The Leafs defense was their biggest weakness last season. Physical, but plodding, non-puck-moving trade deadline additions Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lyubushkin turned out to be horrible additions and an indictment on the state of the team's back end.
The play of T.J. Brodie and Mark Giordano regressed. Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe, and an unexpected boost from Simon Benoit were the most dependable blueliners.
Adding proven veterans Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson during this summer's free agency has potentially improved the Maple Leafs defense, though it should be noted that OEL is an expensive upgrade on Giordano but they pretty much played the same roles, on the same kind of team, and put up nearly identical numbers doing so last year.
Projected pairings of Rielly/Tanev, McCabe/Timothy Liljegren, and OEL-Benoit give the Leafs a better blend of physical play, puck movers, and versatility on their blue line. The team lacks a stud defender but their overall group has more potential than last year's defense.
The Leafs young talent is ready to emerge
Goaltender Joseph Woll has limited NHL experience and health concerns but his talent is undeniable. His calm demeanor and presence are suited to playing in a market like Toronto.
The early returns also suggest he is built for the big stage. He led the Leafs back from a 3-1 series deficit to force a deciding Game 7 during last year's first round. An unfortunate injury at the end of Game 6 derailed his momentum.
Woll's potential alone is a huge factor. Keeping him healthy is the key to the team's division title hopes. Woll playing roughly half the games in a competitive tandem with newcomer Anthony Stolarz plus an occasional contribution from veteran Matt Murray should catapult the Leafs to a first-place finish.
Matthew Knies is another young piece that is full of potential. He, too thrives in the postseason. The 21-year-old has shone in two playoff appearances and has the skill and size suited for a top-six role among forwards.
The big left-winger had a solid first, full NHL season with 15 goals and 35 points. The accomplishments came despite little time spent on special teams. An extra year's worth of experience should mean improved production and another skilled forward that the opposition needs to account for.
Promising prospects Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten will look to prove during training camp that they are ready for a full-time NHL role. Either of them making the team would provide some needed upside to the bottom six forwards.
Unhappy restricted free agent Nick Robertson is another young prospect capable of boosting the Leafs. He should welcome a fresh start with Berube. The new coach has arrived at an optimal time when the Maple Leafs promising youngsters are ready to mesh with the team's high-priced talent.
Berube's leadership a welcome change
Speaking of Berube, he represents a new voice and a fresh start behind the Leafs bench. The Cup-winning coach, ex of the St. Louis Blues, arrives with a no-nonsense reputation. The reviews of former and current players and coaches suggest the Maple Leafs made a good choice for their next coach.
Sheldon Keefe was one of the most accomplished regular-season coaches in Leafs history but he could not translate that success to the playoffs. Last year's series loss to the Bruins cost him his job.
After five seasons with the same core of players and little postseason success, it was time to move on. His message was likely getting stale.
Increased accountability and getting the most out of his players have been used to describe Berube. His pedigree as a former NHL enforcer and title-winning coach brings immediate respect from his players. The symbolic nature of a new beginning under his guidance will benefit the Leafs.
Superior special teams play will help win games
The Leafs power play has been among the league leaders over the past eight seasons. They consistently find themselves among the top-five units in any given year.
With personnel like Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Tavares, and Rielly that is unlikely to change. New assistant coach Marc Savard brings optimism for even better results.
The Maple Leafs penalty-killing suffered last season. It was ranked an abysmal 23rd in the league at 76.9%. Despite that showing, the team has personnel that has been part of top-ten-ranked units in prior seasons.
Marner and David Kampf are proven performers while playing short-handed. Matthews should be improved from his initial foray into penalty-killing last year. Woll and Stolarz should bump up the team's ranking over the inconsistent play of former goalie Ilya Samsonov.
The addition of Tanev and his shot-blocking ability should also help the Leafs while playing short. The team's play while shorthanded should rebound to a more respectable level for all of those reasons.
Leafs division rivals are weaker
The reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are the Leafs biggest threat to a division title. The Panthers have the second-best odds to win the title next season. The Lightning, Bruins, and the rest of the division all have lower odds than Toronto.
Important players have moved on from the Maple Leafs divisional rivals. The Panthers lost Ekman-Larsson, Stolarz (while simultaneously benefitting the Leafs), and Brandon Montour. Sam Reinhart is unlikely to repeat his career year from 2023-2024.
The Lightning lost long-time captain and sniper Steven Stamkos and replaced him with Jake Guentzel. The Bruins parted ways with Jake Debrusk and goalie Linus Ullmark and replaced them with Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov.
At best, the Maple Leafs main divisional rivals come out even regarding their player losses and additions. Toronto's most significant free agent departure was Tyler Bertuzzi whose production is yet to be replaced.
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Putting those factors together, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a great opportunity to win their first division title in years.