What Should the Toronto Maple Leafs Do With Their UFAs?
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a projected $18.5 million available this off-season and with a number of UFAs (unrestricted free agents) coming up they will need to spend the money wisely.
The situation facing the Toronto Maple Leafs now is similar to the one Brad Treliving faced last off-season that saw him have nearly $20 million in cap space.
Luckily, many of the contracts coming off the books are those of players who have been stuck on long-term injured reserve (LTIR). Meaning, that the team does not have to sign as many players as it seems. Also, this should give the Leafs much more flexibility as they look to improve on this down season.
The Leafs had a very poor year that saw them regress in the regular season and playoffs, failing to make it out of the first round once again, after seemingly taking a step last year.
This is a crucial off-season for the franchise and one of the most important in the Matthews era and will require them to make the most out of their signings.
I will be using the contract projections from AFPAnalytics in order to set a baseline for each player and to see whether or not the Leafs should re-sign them. I did the same with the RFAs last week which is why some players like Timothy Liljegren or Nick Robertson are not listed.
All Contract and Statistical information via: CapFriendly.com and HockeyReference.com
T.J. Brodie
When the Leafs signed TJ Brodie in 2020, he was immediately one of their best defensemen.
He was able to seamlessly fit onto the top-pair next to Morgan Rielly and help anchor the pairing making it much more effective.
He was also utilized in the playoffs to team up with Jake Muzzin and create an elite shutdown pairing. His and Muzzin’s defensive IQ mixed with Brodie’s active stick helped make the Leafs much more formidable defensively.
However, this year Brodie struggled mightily.
He started the year on the top-pair in his usual role alongside Rielly. By the end of the season, he was a healthy scratch, only playing in a single playoff game.
This indicates that the Leafs don’t view him as one of the 18 best players on the roster. Although this past season seems to have tainted his perception to some, fans should remember him as one of the best defenders on the team for years and one of the most underrated in his time.
Many have speculated the cause of his decline whether it be age or personal reasons, it is tough to say if he can or will bounce back. Players his age almost never do.
Brodie likely walks in free agency as he might be able to command over one or two million on a short-term deal. But, Treliving should take him back at or around league minimum on a one-year deal as a seventh or eighth defender. Either way, hopefully he can find his footing in the league once again and go out on better terms than what this season presented.
Ilya Samsonov
It is not breaking news to say that Samsonov struggled this year.
Between being one of the league’s worst goalies to redeeming himself to then struggling again come the postseason, this was a rollercoaster season for the 27-year-old. A ride that the Leafs should not chance taking again.
He was left unqualified by the Washington Capitals in 2022, largely due to his inconsistent play. It is that same inconsistency that should see him hit the open market now in 2024.
His play looked very promising after posting a .919% SV% (save percentage) in 42 games in 2022-23 but after signing a one-year $3.55 million after arbitration, his numbers plummeted to a career worst .890 SV% this past season.
As much as the free agent market in net is slim pickings, there needs to be an alternative option. Whether it comes from within in Dennis Hildeby or through the trade or free agent market, there needs to be changes in net. His current projection is $2.3 million for one year but at this point, the Leafs should look elsewhere for that money.
Martin Jones
Jones greatly exceeded expectations this season.
He was signed as a veteran insurance marker as a number three goalie to provide some separation between the tandem of Samsonov/Woll and their prospects.
Between the injury to Woll and Samsonov’s poor play, he stepped up admirably posting a .902 SV% in 22 games this year. Unfortunately, his play started to slip as the season wore on going from a .915 SV% through eight games in December to a .907% in nine in January and .885% in three games in February. Like Samsonov, his inconsistent play has hindered him greatly over his career as this is only the first time he has finished a season above .900 since 2017.
If he would be willing, it would make sense for the team to re-sign Jones to a similar salary and in a similar role. He was on a one-year league minimum contract this season.
According to AFP Analytics, they estimate his next contract to be around $950K for one year. Although fair, the Leafs should look to see if they can save the nearly $200K and sign somebody else if Jones is unwilling to go lower.
John Klingberg
Although many bemoaned the signing for Klingberg at $4.15 million this past season, it sucks that it unfolded the way it did. He only suited up in 14 games for the Leafs notching five assists before being sidelined for the entire season requiring hip surgery.
A once highly regarded top-pairing defender, Klingberg may be forced to retire or take a short-term low salary “prove-it” deal this summer.
His projected contract is $1.64 million for one year, which the Leafs should not take. Injury history aside, the Klingberg gamble did not make much sense to begin with. Connor Timmins should be able to provide secondary offense and puckmoving ability for much cheaper at $1.1 million. Like Brodie, they should be open to re-signing Klingberg at or around league minimum if possible but the most likely outcome is that he walks.
Matt Murray
The Leafs shocked many when they activated Murray from LTIR and sent him to the Marlies for a conditioning stint. Although he struggled in his three games back, it does come after having bilateral hip surgery. Based on Marlies head coach John Gruden’s comments, he seemed to be a positive influence.
Pinch me if you’ve heard this before but Murray’s inconsistent play has been an issue. It is made even more tough with this latest surgery. Hip surgery can be a new lease on life for some goalies like Thatcher Demko or Pavel Francouz. But it isn’t always a miracle procedure, like former Leafs’ prospect Ian Scott who was forced to retire after going under the knife.
So, if Jones is wanting to move on, Murray could be an option to fill his role next year for the right price. His projection is roughly $800K which could be reasonable under the right circumstances. The only hangup is that the Leafs should hopefully have a more stable number one and two option in net before bringing Murray back to fill a third or fourth string role. Another option could be Murray signing an AHL deal to be a veteran presence in hopes of one day making a return to the NHL.
Joel Edmundson
Edmundson was acquired at the deadline and brings many ‘intangibles’ like being a physical big-bodied veteran defender who has won a cup. His stint in Toronto was not too bad, he was as advertised and for the cost of a third and fourth, it wasn’t a major investment but, he didn’t stand out as a must-have on the backend.
Unfortunately for him, the Leafs have a logjam on the left-side with Rielly, McCabe, and Benoit all under contract for next season and I don’t see him displacing any of them.
His contract projection puts him around $1.7 million for two years and I would not take it. Intangibles or not, he would not be more than a seventh defender on this team and Treliving should not allocate that much money to a depth defender.
Mark Giordano
Although nothing has come out, it seems like Giordano is unlikely to re-sign in Toronto.
He has been a stabilizing veteran defender for the Leafs and took a Jason Spezza-esque hometown discount at $750K for the past two seasons. This past season he was the oldest active player at 40 years old and sadly he saw a decline this season. He played in only 46 games in the regular season and zero playoff games. This is due to a mixture of stacking injuries and healthy scratches.
At this point, it seems likely that Giordano retires or chooses to sign another one-year league minimum contract in Toronto or elsewhere. There is still plenty of time for something to get done but the lack of news seems to indicate that Giordano is likely done in Toronto either way.
Ilya Lyubushkin
Lyubushkin brings a similar element to Edmundson.
Although he does not have the experience or Stanley Cup pedigree, I think he fits the Leafs better stylistically. He is a right-shot defenseman which is a definite need for the team.
He also has shown some ability to play alongside Rielly if need be although this certainly is not the most optimal pairing. However, both stints in Toronto has seen Lyubushkin play only a total of 50 games in the regular season. This is concerning as we have not seen him for a long stretch of time and with his poor performances over the past two seasons, the team should be careful about overspending on a replaceable player.
If he is willing to come in cheap (at or below the $1.15 million buried threshold limit) he could be worth signing.
His contract projection is a two-year deal worth just shy of $1.5 million per season which would be a little high for what he brings to the table. Although, the key for Lyubushkin may be stability as he has played on four different teams over the past three seasons, including two separate stints in Toronto most recently after coming back in a trade at this year's trade deadline.
The other option for him could be a move back to the KHL but his tools always seem to be coveted by an NHL team so he should be able to secure a contract, even if it is not in Toronto.
Max Domi
In what was a long awaited homecoming, Max Domi signed a one-year contract worth $3 million last summer.
He was brought in to provide complimentary offence with a physical edge and he filled that role quite well, scoring nine goals and 47 points in 80 games. He also showed versatility playing both center and wing up and down the lineup at different points throughout the season, including some chemistry with star Auston Matthews on the top line.
His next deal is projected to be two years for around $3.5 million. I would be willing to go as high as $4 million for three or more years and I think the Leafs should re-sign him if he’s willing.
Although he is a useful secondary player, if Pierre LeBrun of TSN and the Athletic is correct in the deal being between $5 million and $6 million, the Leafs should steer clear. He is very useful and a player the Leafs should definitely try to keep but with only a limited amount of cap flexibility, they cannot spend $6 million of their $18.5 million on a middle-six forward with limited upside.
Tyler Bertuzzi
Like Domi, fans had been clamouring for Tyler Bertuzzi to wear blue and white for some time.
He seemed to be a perfect fit to fill a Bunting/Hyman type role in the top-six after inking a one-year contract last summer. Unfortunately, it was an up and down season for Bertuzzi who only amassed six goals and 20 points through his first 46 games as Leaf. Luckily, he came around down the stretch finishing with 15 goals and 23 points in his final 34 games.
It seems likely that between his struggles here and the amount he has moved around the past two seasons that he would prefer to settle somewhere. If his contract does indeed come in at or around the projected four-year and $5.27 million AAV, the Leafs should bring him back.
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However, it seems likely that he could receive more money if he hits the open market which would make it hard for the Leafs to retain him. Like every other player on this list, the Leafs should be careful about overspending on ancillary pieces.