Does Dennis Hildeby Deserve a Shot at the Toronto Maple Leafs Crease?
Coming into this year, the Toronto Maple Leafs looked as though their crease was set. They had two goaltenders that had a decent track record of playing solidly behind this team and would be a formidable 1A/1B tandem.
That said, looking back, it does seem like it should have been more obvious that you shouldn't enter one of the prime seasons of the best player in the history of your franchise with an injury prone rookie and a guy you took to arbitration to avoid paying.
Ilya Samsonov, who had taken the reigns as number one and ran with it in 2022-23 had re-signed for one more year. His 2023-24 perfectly encapsulated the volatility of the goaltending position seeing his save percentage drop from .919% the season before to a .890% by the end of this year.
Now, it’s almost certain he's played his last game as a member of the Leafs.
Toronto Maple Leafs Goalie Situation
Joseph Woll, the first real homegrown goalie who was vying for a starting job since James Reimer. He looked poised to take a solid step in his first full NHL season and hopefully take the torch as the number one netminder for years to come. Although he did not play bad by any stretch, he was sidelined for three months during the season due to a high ankle sprain.
After struggling in his return, understandably, he lost the net heading into the postseason. Due to the struggles of Samsonov he regained the net and he was instrumental in the comeback attempt by the Leafs and helped them tie the series up 3-3. However, he injured himself once again and was unavailable to play in the seventh game and the Leafs ended up losing the series.
Now here we are at end of this season and the Leafs crease is as questionable as it has been for years. Do you attempt to re-sign Samsonov, hoping last year was the anomaly and he’ll regain the form he has shown capable of in the past? Do you hand the reigns to Woll and hope that his spotty injury history is behind him? These are all major questions that must be addressed as the Leafs enter year nine of the Matthews era.
All of these questions beg one important one, does Toronto Marlies standout Dennis Hildeby deserve a shot at the maple leafs crease?
There is no doubt that this would be a risky move. He has only played one full season on North American ice but it’s what he’s shown in that time that forces the question to be asked.
All Stats and Information via: Capfriendly.com and EliteProspects.com
Does Dennis Hildeby Deserve a Shot at the Toronto Maple Leafs Crease?
He quickly took over as the starting goalie for the Marlies this season and never let go of it.
In 41 games played for the Marlies this year, he sported a .913 SV%. This was good for second in goalies 22 and under this season.
It was tied with or ahead of elite goaltending prospects like: Sebastian Cossa, Yaroslav Askarov, and Jesper Wallstedt. Although Hildeby is older than them, all three are less than a year and a half younger.
The biggest hold-up is if he is ready to make the transition, yet. There is very little doubt he will eventually play at least some NHL games someday. Luckily, there is some recent precedence for this as seven goalies 23 and under played significant time in the NHL this year.
Justus Annunen is the best example, suiting up for 14 games with a .928 SV%. Interestingly, he had a similar season to Hildeby the year prior, playing 41 games with a .916 SV%.
There was also Joel Hofer who played 30 games with a .913 SV% and even Lukas Dostal with a .902 in 44 games. Dostal also had a statistically similar year to Hildeby in the AHL the season before holding a .912 SV% in 34 games.
On the contrary, there are plenty of goalies who are of a similar age that struggled this year. There was Akira Schmid and Nico Daws who played 19 and 21 games respectively with a .895 SV% and .894 SV%. There was also Dustin Wolf who played 17 games with a .893 SV%.
Then there was Magnus Chrona who played nine games and a .859 SV%.
So what should the Leafs do?
Dennis Hildeby: Top Prospect
This contrast shows the volatility of the position and that success in the AHL is not necessarily indicative of future NHL success.
This proves how risky of a gamble it would be assuming he would take an NHL role. For this reason, I feel that the Leafs should not hand him a job in the show just yet and should let him naturally take one if the opportunity presents itself.
The likelihood of Hildeby receiving an opportunity to play significant time with the Leafs next season is also dependent on the goalies ahead of him.
If the Leafs feel Joseph Woll could be ready to take over the starting job and thus don’t feel a need to spend big on another proven NHL caliber option, the pathway for Hildeby becomes much clearer.
However, if the Leafs target a proven netminder, it will be a lot more difficult to break through. Lucky for him, the free agent market is slim pickings with the available options being career backups and “1B” goalies or a few mostly over the hill veteran options.
This makes the trade market the most likely avenue that Leafs management would choose to go down if they want to make a big splash. Likely, Juuse Saros, Ilya Sorokin or Jacob Markstrom to name a few.
Assuming the trade does not trade away Hildeby or Woll, it would make it much more likely that that he is the Marlies starter or number three/four Leafs option.
It is hard to guess how the next few months unfold and with so many variables at play, it makes it all the more difficult. As of right now, I see the most likely scenario being that the Leafs opt for the free agent route given Woll’s success at the NHL level so far. This will allow them to allocate even less to their cap in goaltending. In saying this, Treliving’s past actions with the Flames indicates that he is unafraid to make a shake-up in goal and allocate plenty of cap to the position for better or worse.
He acquired; Jonas Hiller, Brian Elliott, Mike Smith, Cam Talbot, and Jacob Markstrom as the most notable names during his tenure in Calgary. It should be pointed out that he never had a homegrown goaltender like Woll in his time there which likely played a significant role. Meaning, he had to go out and trade or sign one consistently. This leads me to believe that he will put faith in Woll to be the number one next season.
As of right now, I would rather not pencil in Hildeby for an NHL job at this point. The goaltending position is already volatile enough and with every season mattering more and more, the margin for error is increasingly more slim.
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I would expect that the Leafs go after a cheaper option in free agency to take over a 1B or back-up role with the team and potentially sign another cheap veteran for added insurance, similar to Martin Jones this year.