The Toronto Maple Leafs have played very well against Western Conference opponents this season, having an 18-5-2 record against the West. They are 8-2-2 when on the road against Western Conference opponents and 14-3-2 when they have been favoured against the West.
The Blues have held their own against the Eastern Conference with their 12-9-1 record and 8-4-1 record at home against Eastern Conference opponents. Although, they only managed 15 shots last time out against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Blues have also won seven of their last 10 games, but they have had a lot of luck on their side as they rank dead last in the NHL in expected goal percentage at 5-on-5 over that 10-game stretch (stats via NaturalStatTrick).
The Blues have also been dominated recently in terms of 5-on-5 scoring chances as they rank dead last in the NHL in unblocked shot attempt percentage, shot-on-goal percentage and high-danger scoring chance percentage and the Maple Leafs are coming into this one red-hot offensively scoring 3.87 goals per game over their last 10 games.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs St. Louis Blues
Even though the lineup has been depleted, there is a good chance John Tavares returns today (via Jonas Siegel). He’ll return alongside William Nylander who has scored five goals in his last five games, and presumably drop Max Domi back to the third line to play alongside a red-hot Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson who have both been producing on the third line.
Auston Matthews also enters play scoring back-back-back hat tricks, everything is going right for the Maple Leafs right now and I am going to trust them to beat the Blues again. It’s tough to beat a team twice in back-to-back weeks, but the Blues are due to regress.
This is getting ridiculous. 😱
— NHL (@NHL) February 18, 2024
That's the second time Auston Matthews (@AM34) has scored back-to-back hat tricks this season. It's also his SIXTH hatty of the year!
Hat Trick Challenge presented by @AstraZenecaUS pic.twitter.com/CzwXYIzmKj
Best Bet: Toronto Maple Leafs Regulation Moneyline (+100)
Player Props
Auston Matthews Over 0.5 Goal (-110)
Matthews is on a ridiculous scoring tear right now, he is on pace to score 75 goals this season. He has a goal in 15 of his last 20 games and is scoring 1.19 goals per game on one day of rest this season. Diving in deeper, Matthews has scored a goal in nine of his last 10 games on the road with one day of rest.
The Blues are giving up the third-most expected goals per game over their last ten and Matthews is the best goal scorer in the NHL, I like him to add another one to his league-leading pace tonight.
Bobby McCann Over 0.5 Goal (+500)
Last time out against the Blues, McMann scored three goals on six shots and eight shot attempts. McMann and the rest of the third line have been playing with a lot more confidence recently. Over the Maple Leafs last three games McMann, Robertson and Domi all have goal-for percentages over 75% at 5-on-5 and will be going against the Blues depth who have been getting dominated.
McMann has been playing really well, he has five goals in his last three games. I think he finds the back of the net here again tonight against the Blues who give up the ninth most goals per game to Wingers.