We're just beyond the all-star break for the Toronto Maple Leafs. It is irresponsible to begin scoreboard watching and trying to determine who the team faces when the post season begins in April, but let's do it anyway.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been constructed in a way that General Manager Brad Treliving hopes will go deep in the playoffs and hopefully capture the Stanley Cup. While things could change with a blockbuster trade, according to Playoff Status, there are teams who statistically, the Buds will need to knock off in order to reach their ultimate goal.
Currently, the Maple Leafs have roughly 82% percent chance of making it into the playoffs. (other sites such as moneypuck.com have the Leafs much higher to make it).
That's improved from the 52-per cent chance they had in week six of the season, in mid-February. At this point the playoffs are a virtual lock.
Toronto Maple Leafs First Round Matchup
Toronto currently has a 3-per cent chance of finishing first in the Atlantic Division. The chance that they finish second is 15-per cent, and third 28-per cent. That's because the Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins have been significantly better thus far. There is also a 21-per cent chance the Maple Leafs make the 7th seed wildcard and a 15-per cent chance at making the 8th seed wildcard.
So who are the Leafs most likely to face in Round 1? The good news is that they would likely avoid the Tampa Bay Lightning after seeing them the past couple seasons. The bad news is that the Leafs are most likely to face off against one of the NHL's best teams, the Boston Bruins. There is a 30-per cent chance that these two clubs meet.
The math says that the next closest team for the Maple Leafs to see in the opening round is the Panthers, the team that eliminated them last season. There is a 2-per cent chance that if this is the matchup, that Toronto gets home ice advantage, versus the 19-per cent chance of the Leafs starting the playoffs on the road.
There is also a 13-per cent chance that the Buds play the New York Rangers. That would be a far more favourable position for the Leafs to find themselves, especially compared to the Panthers and Bruins waiting for them.
Toronto Maple Leafs Second Round Matchup
Without knowing for certain who the Leafs will face in the opening round, it is even more challenging to determine who they see if they were to make it to the second round.
What we know is that the current odds for the Leafs to win their first round series is 33-per-cent. Should the Leafs get past one of the above three teams, they will likely see another one of them in the conference semifinal. This means that the Leafs road to the cup almost certainly has to go through the either the Panthers or Bruins and potentially both.
While, we will obviously need the season to play out to see whether the math matches how things eventually end up. However, the most important odds Leafs fans want to know right now is that the team has a 2-per cent chance of winning the Stanley Cup.