Toronto Maple Leafs Possible Playoff Match Ups In Round One
The Toronto Maple Leafs are most likely to play the Florida Panthers in the first round of the upcoming NHL playoffs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have clined a playoff spot, but the NHL Eastern Conference playoff race still has two positions to be decided.
The third division spot in the Metropolitan division is still up for grabs, and before play last night, the New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, and Philadelphia Flyers are all within two points of one another, with the Islanders, winniers last night, currently holding it down.
The other spot up for grabs is the second wild-card spot. The Washington Capitals currently hold this spot, but they are also within that two-point gap with all the teams above while still trying to fend off the New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres, who are both now eliminated.
But none of this is going to matter to the Maple Leafs. Before the Maple Leafs game against the Devils on Tuesday night, the Leafs have a 73.4% chance of finishing third in the Atlantic division and a 20.3% chance of finishing second in the Atlantic (via MoneyPuck).
This means that the Leafs will either play the Florida Panthers or the Boston Bruins, with the Panthers being the more likely option. Either of these will be a tough matchup, but the Leafs are as the NHL's top scoring 5v5 team, and have many options to play matchups with, depending on the first-round opponent they face.
Toronto Maple Leafs Likely To Get Playoff Rematch vs. Florida Panthers
If the playoffs were to start today, the Panthers would be the Leafs first-round matchup. Despite losing to them (mostly due to Sergei Bobrovsky) last year in the second round, this is the better of the two most likely matchups the Maple Leafs could get.
The Leafs still have a regular-season game against the Panthers, but through the first three games of the season series, the Leafs are 2-1 through the first three games and the final game of the season series is the second to last game of the season for the Leafs.
Looking at these two teams from a statistical perspective, the Panthers have the advantage and will be the favourite in the series. The biggest reason is that the Panthers rank third in the NHL in expected goals allowed per game. This stat has been a significant predictor of the eventual Stanley Cup winner, as four of the last five Stanley Cup winners have ranked inside the top five in this stat (via NaturalStatTrick).
The Panthers are also an excellent puck possession team, ranking second in shot attempt percentage and third in shot-on-goal percentage, while the Leafs rank outside the top 10 in both stats. In addition to the statistics, the Panthers have the goaltending advantage going into this matchup. Sergei Bobrovsky has been brilliant again this season, saving the sixth most goals above expected of any goalie and averaging the 15th most goals saved above expected per game.
Despite that, the Maple Leafs are coming into this playoff run in much better form than the Florida Panthers. Over the last 25 days, the Leafs have gone 9-5-1, and in these games, the Maple Leafs have played teams contending for a playoff spot in all but two of those games. On the other hand, the Panthers are 4-7-2 and are 0-6 in games against Eastern Conference teams that have already clinched a playoff spot over that stretch.
Looking more recent goaltending performances, the Leafs also have a slight edge there. Ilya Samsonov will more than likely be the playoff starter and over his last eight starts he has saved 0.46 goals above expected per game, where as Bobrovsky has started to struggle over his last 10 starts for the Panthers allowing 0.39 more goals than expected.
Although the Maple Leafs will be slight underdogs in this series, they can compete with this Panthers team if they can find away to move pucks quick and nullify the Panthers forecheck. The other big key for the Leafs will be staying out of the penalty box.
Since the start of March, the Maple Leafs have been averaging the sixth-highest penalty kill time on ice per game, but the Panthers have been averaging the most per game by more than 1:30 minutes. If the Leafs stay as disciplined as they have been for most of the season, Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs powerplay could take over this series.
Maple Leafs Need To Avoid Round 1 Matchup With Bruins
Now, I said that the Panthers were the better matchup for the Maple Leafs, but the Leafs do match up better statistically against the Bruins.
The Bruins are not as strong as the Panthers in puck possession categories, which would be nice to match up with, considering one of the Leafs biggest weaknesses is breaking the puck out of their end.
However, since the start of the 2023 calandar year, the Bruins have dominated the Leafs winning all seven head-to-head matchups in regulation and outscoring the Leafs 24-13 in those games.
What is even more concerning is the Maple Leafs have been outscored 8-2 in the last two head-to-head matchups, showing they are no closer to figuring out how to beat this team.
I don't think it is worth diving too deep into the advanced analytics here because the Bruins goaltending advantage in this series can defy any statistical advantage the Toronto Maple Leafs may have.
Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark were by far and away the best goaltending tandem in the NHL again this season with Ullmark ranking eigth in the NHL and Swayman ranking 10th in the NHL in goals saved above expected among goalies who have played a minimum of 800 minutes this season (via NaturalStatTrick).
Luckily for the Maple Leafs, this matchup against the Bruins is pretty unlikely, as the Panthers would need to gain a minimum of three points on the Panthers in three games to take the division lead.
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The Bruins have a much better defensive group and goaltenders than the Maple Leafs; they are built to win in multiple ways, whereas the Leafs are built to out-score teams. I do not see the Maple Leafs being able to do this against Jeremy Swayman or Linus Ullmark.