The Toronto Maple Leafs should study the career trajectory of Nathan MacKinnon, the NHL's current Hart Trophy winner, before they make any rash decisions about trading Mitch Marner.
Nathan MacKinnon is two years older than Marner, and he's played three seasons more in the NHL because the Toronto Maple Leafs kept Marner in junior the year after he was drafted.
Both players are lightning fast skaters who dominate play when they are on the ice, and who were expected from day 1 to be one of the top players in the NHL. They had similar rookie seasons and both players headed into their 9th season after 4 straight years of pacing 100 points without ever actually hitting the total.
Before his ninth season, people were asking if Nathan MacKinnon would ever lead a team to the Stanley Cup. In five of his first eight seasons, MacKinnon's Avalanche either didn't make the playoffs or failed to get by the first round. In the other three seasons, the Avalanche were stopped in the second round.
Neither player got beyond the second round in the first eight years of their career, and neither player cracked 100 points. You could say that MacKinnon at least made it to the second round two extra times, but you could also say that Marner never missed the playoffs three times.
Toronto Maple Leafs Must Be Aware of What Nathan MacKinnon Did in 9th Season
You could say MacKinnon is the better goal scorer, but his career high after his eighth season was only six goals higher than Marner's career high of 35. Marner is the better defender, and arguably the more complete player - up to this point in their careers. Certainly Marner has more points, better advanced stats and a better reputation for defense than MacKinnon after eight years each.
But what about now? Marner has taken the brunt of the blame for the Leafs problems and MacKinnon has won a Hart Trophy and a Stanley Cup since he finished his eighth year, something the Leafs should be hyper-aware of.
In his 9th year, MacKinnon scored at a 111 point pace over 65 games and helped his team win the Stanley Cup. In year ten he scored 111 points for real, in just 71 games. By now he was known as the games second or third best player, depending on how badly the person talking underrated Auston Matthews.
In year 11 he won the Hart Trophy while scoring 140 points and becoming known as basically the most complete player in the NHL.
But keep in mind that he reached a new level of his career after he was older than Mitch Marner is now, and that his career is extremely similar to Marner's up to that point, only with Marner being quite a bit better overall.
Do you really want to trade a 27 year-old future Hall of Fame player just before his 9th season when the player most similar to him cracked 100 points, won the Hart Trophy and the Stanley Cup in his 9th, 10th and 11th seasons?
Do you really want to see Marner learn and grow into an NHL superstar only to go to another team to get his best years? What are we even doing here? Mitch Marner is the last player you trade, other than Auston Matthews. He is a franchise player in his own right and even thinking of trading him shows a heretofore unthinkable level of negligence.