The Toronto Maple Leafs are not good enough to win the Stanley Cup.
The Toronto Maple Leafs also are not good enough to win the President's Troph (as the NHL's top regular season team) or the Atlantic Division (which is necessary to avoid a ridiculous path through the playoffs).
Sure, they could do all three things in a best-case scenario: Easton Cowan is the Calder Trophy Winner, Chris Tanev is healthy and does not decline. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander all put up MVP worthy seasons while Tavares and Morgan Rielly avoid decline.
All that and their extremely inexperienced goaltending will have to of Vezina-quality.
If all that happens, the Leafs could be the best team in the NHL.
But I'm not here today to talk about their ceiling, I'm here to talk about their most likely outcome: which is that they are not good enough.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Not Currently Good Enough To Win the Stanley Cup
The Leafs are banking on two goalies who have never been starters. Their main guy, Joseph Woll, is so injury prone that he can't even go to a butterfly conservatory in case one of them lands on his arm and he gets another season ending injury!
Their blue-line lacks a number-one elite top-of-the-lineup superstar.
Their blue-line has at last two below average puck-movers (McCabe, Benoit) , and doesn't have anyone with major upside.
Their blue-line could have a $6.5. million third-pairing + Rielly, Tanev or Mccabe could fall of a cliff at any time, just like TJ Brodie did last year.
Up front, they have one of the best forward groups in the NHL, but with the loss of Tyler Bertuzzi and possibly NIck Robertson, it's worse than it was last year. If both of those guys are gone, the Leafs lose two of their three gritty top-nine forwards.
Their forwards also lack a third-line centre, and could potentially be using Pontus Holmberg there to start the season, which is an absolute joke.
Also, the Toronto Maple Leafs fourth line is actively bad and very expensive with David Kampf and Ryan Reaves - two of the very worst players in the NHL - making way too much money and blocking younger and higher potential players from getting minutes.
The Leafs are an older team without much upside, outside of their three star players, Easton Cowan and their goalies.
Injury prone, capped out, old, and poorly balanced with bad goaltending. The fact that it's hard to tell if that is a worst case scenario or the likliest one means the Leafs might be in trouble.
Either way, they are not good enough as is.