The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Destined for a Wild Card Spot This Season

I think that the Toronto Maple Leafs will once again be starting the playoffs on the road next season.

It is my prediction that the Toronto Maple Leafs will end up as a Wild Card team in 2024-25.

Predicting where clubs will finish during the offseason is an inexact science. It’s like trying to time the stock market. While there are reasonable assumptions that could be made, quantitative inputs, and even good old-fashioned gut feelings, hitting the mark on predictions isn’t always accurate.

That being said, the events that transpired this offseason, including signings and missed opportunities, signal that the Toronto Maple Leafs are headed for a wild card spot this upcoming season. To be clear, I want to state that I firmly believe the Leafs will make the playoffs.

The issue is determining in what position the Maple Leafs will end the regular season. Now, I’ve written in the past about how the Leafs have the best chance in a long time to win the division. I stand by that statement. However, everything has to go right for the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the division.

What do I mean by that? First of all, the goaltending needs to be stellar. The defence needs to hold together, and the offense needs to step up. If Auston Matthews hits 70 goals and Mitch Marner and William Nylander eclipse 100 points, there’s no telling how dominant the Leafs could be.

But that’s if EVERYTHING goes right.

Toronto Maple Leafs Destined for a Wild Card Spot

Let’s now consider what would happen if one or several things don’t go right for the Leafs. For example, the club needs to turn to Matt Murray for a significant number of starts. Or, John Tavares’ production falls off a cliff, and he’s no longer capable of holding a top-six spot.

Perhaps the worst thing that could happen is Matthews, Nylander, or Marner getting hurt for extended periods. The defence could falter, with Chris Tanev spending more time on the shelf than on the ice.

All of these scenarios are plausible. In fact, the likelihood of at least one of them happening is quite high. If that’s indeed the case, what happens then? Do the Maple Leafs remain a dominant team in the Atlantic Division?

The odds would be that the Leafs challenge for a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. That’s assuming that Boston plays well and Florida continues playing like Cup champions. This scenario also assumes that the Detroit Red Wings become a playoff team, and one of Ottawa or Buffalo actually turns things around. Then, there’s Tampa. Let’s assume the Lightning don’t regress and still maintain a semblance of the championship team they once were.

If the Leafs end up in a wild card spot, it could actually benefit them. They might play a team from the Metro Division, like the Rangers or Hurricanes. Not meeting Tampa or Boston in the first round for a change could be an opportunity to get past all of those ghosts haunting the Leafs.

Ultimately, lots of things need to go the Leafs way if the club wants to make a deep postseason run. I’m cautiously optimistic about this upcoming season. I think we’ll circle back to this conversation around Christmas time to see just how accurate these predictions were.