Rewards do not Justify Risks of Joseph Woll Contract for the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs took a pretty big risk when they extended Joseph Woll and I do not believe that the potential rewards justify such a risk.

The Toronto Maple Leafs had the right idea, but they seem unable to break their addiction to signing bad contracts - even when they get it right, they get it wrong.

All things considered, I think because they have a limited Marner/Matthews Peak/Prime Window I think it is absolutely insane not to just do whatever it takes to land a no-doubt, franchise altering #1 Goalie. If you look at what any random goalie that gets hot can do for any team, it is probably worth all of your assets to get the best one alive if you can pair him with Auston Matthews for the entirety of his prime.

The Leafs, however, chose to go an alternate path, one where they save their assets and cap space by making a value-bet on the goalie position. It's not a bad play, but I don't think the rewards they will get justify it.

Rewards do not Justify Risks of Joseph Woll Contract for the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs signed Joseph Woll to a three-year deal with a team-friendly cap-hit of $3.66 million. If Woll is good, the Leafs get a starting goalie on a dirt-cheap cap hit, which means they not only get a goalie, but depending on how good he is, the value could be insane in a league where a top goalie makes between $8 and $10 million.

But this contract isn't anywhere near long enough to justify this bet.

And it inexplicably comes with no-trade protection in the third year. It's only 8 teams and it's unlikely the Leafs would want to trade him if he's still on the roster then anyways, but still - no trade protection to an injury prone player who has never played anywhere close to a full season?

Joseph Woll isn't worth $3.66 million right now, it's a bet that he will be. Fair enough. In a cap league, you have to make bets like this, and the Leafs lack of success the last eight years is directly related to their inability to get contract value out of their best players.

But in exchange for $11 million dollars and a guaranteed three year extension of his NHL career (which for a goalie is extremely lucky) the Leafs in a best case scenario get $4.5 million of excess value for three years.

If this bet pays off, Woll will require an extension in the ten million dollar range. If this bet pays off, the Leafs should get a better reward.

Given Woll's age, the risk of signing him for eight years is less than the risk of signing him for three. If you go with eight, you could front-load the deal and make it buy out proof in exchange for an even lower cap hit.

There is no guarantee he signs such a contract, but the fact is, most goalies do not have eight year NHL careers and for a player with his injury history, it's something that they'd have to consider. At the very least the Leafs should have gotten more than three years. Four would have been great and anything above that would have been amazing.

An eight-year deal with even a $4 million cap-hit would be a stroke of genius akin to the Gustov Forsling contract in Florida, but what we actually have is another example of Leafs management having a bad understanding of the risk vs reward concept.