The Best Case Scenario Off-Season for the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a very busy summer ahead of them. Here is the best case scenario version of what could happen.
A lot of people always come up to me and say "Jim, your near-physic take on the Zach Hyman contract makes me wish you were the Toronto Maple Leafs General Manager."
And while I always point out that I'm just way too good looking for such a job, I do feel honoured, and take my role as fake Toronto Maple Leafs GM seriously.
So what I did was I cranked up some oldies - mostly the Angels and the Ronnettes - and I got down to business: the business of what I would do if I was the Leafs GM this summer.
It should go without saying that what I would do doubles as a best-case scenario for the Toronto Maple Leafs and not because I'm a genius, but because I get to make all the trades and signings I want and the other team's GM and the player's agents don't get to counter-offer. It's a pretty big advantage!
Here goes nothing:
The Best Case Scenario Off-Season for the Toronto Maple Leafs
Step One: I set this team up for years with a Goalie Trade.
Jusse Saros is one of the NHL's top five or six goalies. He fits nicely into a group with Igor Shesterkin, Joel Oettinger, Ilya Sorokin, Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy, and I'm not just talking about how hard it is to spell his name.
He might have an off year or two in the next decade, but he's as close to a "set it and forget it" goalie as you're going to get.
And here is the thing - year to year, goalie predictions are impossible. But they aren't that hard to predict if you just go by overall talent and are comfortable making a long-term bet. This is the Sergei Bobrovsky Rule and it might get changed to a Law.
Nashville has a goalie they'd like to promote rather than pay Saros $10 million per year, which the Leafs will be fine with, since his contrat is cheap this upcoming season but will coincide with the experation of John Tavares' deal a year from now.
Here is how you get a ton of extra value out of your first round pick: The Leafs trade the 2027 UNPROTECTED first round pick to Nashville, along with Topi Niemela and Fraser Minten to the Nashville Predators for Jusse Saros and a (much needed) 2025 second rounder.
Mitch Marner
You know Mitch Marner loves Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton, and seems to hate the spotlight, so I doubt he'd mind spending his career in southern California.
Especially on an up-and-coming Might Ducks team.
I personally hate trading Mitch Marner, but this exercise is a lot more fun if I do. Plus, maybe I under-estimated how much everyone involved wants a change. When I got to the office, they told me I pretty much had to do this.
OK so fine then!
I don't like any of the Marner proposals that I have seen, and they don't like me.
But if the Leafs are going to give away a future hall of famer in his prime, the only thing that makes it worth their while would be to bring in a potential star player on an entry-level deal, giving the Leafs a major boost in the salary cap department while also potentially not botching the biggest trade in franchise history.
After I pull off this move, they will call me the Young Jeezy of the NHL, which is high praise, believe me.
I will send Mitch Marner and a case of insufferable bucket hats to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Leo Carlsson and Pavel Mintyukov.
Marner waives to go there, they take his full cap hit **they have $33 million in cap space** and the Toronto Maple Leafs get a guy potentially as good as Marner (eventually) but who can play the upcoming year on an entry-level deal and probably score close to a point per game.
Additionally, they get Mintyukov, who will be a cornerstone of this team for years.
All in all, each new player has two years left on their ELC giving the Leafs a wide-open window to finally win the Stanley Cup.
Next up, we're getting controversial.
A Big Controversial Move
Anton Silayev is a 6'7" Russian Monster who skates well and has played "meaningful" minutes in the KHL at the age of 17.
I have seen him listed anywhere from the top five all the way down to 23rd.
The thing is, if he was of any other nationality he'd probably be a no-doubt top-five pick. The risk is that he will stay in Russia, although I don't recall that ever happening it is something teams always seem to be worried about.
The reason he isn't going to be the first overall pick is because his offensive game is a mystery. Some people don't think it will be good enough to make him anything other than a bottom-pairing defensesman in the NHL.
I would take the risk because of his size and skating.
After the draft starts and I see how the top of the draft shakes out, I package my 23rd pick and Easton Cowan to the first team after pick 5 that will let me, and I move up and take Anton Silayev.
Cowan is a nice find and maybe he becomes a star. But as the Leafs GM I am hesitant to build around forwards right now, and I like the idea of making my top prospect a 6'7" beat who can skate.
Free Agency - Internal
The Toronto Maple Leafs have over 20 free-agents, though most of them are inconsequential. The ones that matter are Timothy Liljegren and Nick Robertson.
I want to sign both of them to the cheapest and longest term deals I can get.
I think both guys are candidates for a bet that will allow me to get years of team-friendly player control if I am right.
I sign Roberston to a four-year extension with a $3 million cap-hit, and Liljegren to an eight-year deal for $3.5.
I also sign Max Domi to a six-year $2.9 million deal, and Tyler Bertuzzi to a 3 x $6.5 because I am in love with the idea of having Matthew Knies and Tyler Bertuzzi both in their primes patrolling the left side for over half a game.
I also sign Connor Dewar to a one-year $1 million contract.
Brodie, Edmundson, Lyubushkin, Giordano, Martin, Jones and Samsonov are obviously all allowed to walk.
Free-Agency External
There are only two free-agents I'm interested, and I'm going to make both of them very rich.
I have no interest in Chis Tanev - he's good, but he's too old and so too risky.
I don't think Brandon Montour is as good as people think he is, and his contract is going to be stupid. I have no interest.
Matt Roy is a good player and excellent at defense, but I don't think he has the upside to make it worth overpaying him in free-agency.
The player I want is Nikita Zadorov. I will offer him a full seven years and $7 million annual salary, front-loaded of course!
It's a massive overpay, but he's the guy I want. He's huge and is just starting to come into his own as a top player. I think this is a huge risk, but it's also got an absolutely massive reward if all goes right.
My second choice is Dylan Demelo and I give him a 5 x $5 deal that he happily accepts. He's 31 so this is pretty risky, but I think he's a smart player who will age well.
These are the only players I am interested in signing. The rest of my roster can be filled out at the trade deadline, if necessary.
Clear Out the Old Growth
The last thing I have to do to get ready for next season is get rid of the players I no longer want on the team.
They are great guys and I have nothing against them, they just take up too much valuable cap space for what they bring to the team.
It costs me a 3rd in 2027 but I send Ryan Reaves to the Utah team, whatever they end up being called.
The Devils signed Keefe, so they bizarrely give me a 3rd rounder in next year's draft for David Kampf. I laugh like a maniac!
The Penguins are more than happy to give me a fourth in next year's draft for Calle Jarnkrok, which I am only too happy to accept.
Finally, I send Connor Timmins to the Hurricanes where he likely becomes a star, but I'm happy with the cleared cap space and the seventh rounder in next year's draft.
None of these moves makes my team better, but it does create room to have some competition for jobs, and if we still need to make moves in-season, that's also fine.
The Toronto Maple Leafs 2024-24 Opening Night Roster
To recap my time as the Leafs GM so far:
Unlike most new GM's, I don't buy myself any time by saying that I'll just observe what's happening for a while. I know what's happening and there is a reason I'm here, so I get right to work.
We traded Topi Niemela, a 2027 unprotected first-rounder, and Fraser Minten for Jusse Saros.
We traded Mitch Marner for Leo Carlsson and Pavel Mintyukov.
We signed Nikita Zadorov, Dylan Demelo, Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi. Not to mention our own free-agents Timothy Liljegren and Nick Robertson.
We Traded Easton Cowan and the 23rd pick to move into the top ten and pick Anton Silayev.
And we cleared out cap-space by moving Jarnkrok, Reaves, Kampf and Timmins.
Overall, we cleared $17.85 in cap space, to go along with the $18.83 that we already have. That's $36.68 million in cap space before the additions.
We brought in or signed the following players: Saros, Carlsson, Mintyukov, Robertson, Liljegren, Dewar, Bertuzzi, Domi, Demelo and Zadorov.
Their total cost is $35.7 million, leaving us with just under one million in cap space.
The opening night roster looks like this:
Knies – Matthews – Nylander
— Editor in Leaf (@EditorinLeaf) June 14, 2024
Bertuzzi – Carlsson – Robertson
McMann – Tavares – Domi
Dewar - Holmberg - ROOKIE
Zadorov – McCabe
Rielly - Liljegren
Mintyukov – Demello
Benoit
Saros
Woll
I don't think the way I got there was too unrealistic, but I'm sure I'll find out in the comments! The Leafs could win the Cup with this team, though I don't know if they are good enough with the additions to overcome the loss of Marner. That would depend on how fast Carlsson achieves superstardom.
manual
Still, I think this work of art is a good start to my hall of fame general managing career!