Connor Timmins + Nick Robertson Need To Be In Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Lineup
The Toronto Maple Leafs dressing room is full of established veterans, an excellent environment for young players to learn and grow.
The problem with having so many established veterans is that it has made it nearly impossible for young Toronto Maple Leafs like Nick Robertson and Conor Timmins to consistently make it in the starting lineup despite taking advantage of every chance they get.
Now, it won't be shocking to hear that an NHL head coach prefers an established veteran over an 'unproven' young guy, and that has been Sheldon Keefe's M.O. since taking over the Maple Leafs head coaching job.
But for the first time while coaching the Maple Leafs this strategy is hurting the Maple Leafs chances to win.
Conor Timmins and Nicholas Robertson have taken massive leaps forward in their games this season. Timmins has increased his wins-above-replacement (WAR) percentage by 30%, and Robertson has increased his WAR% by 20% since the end of last season (via @JFreshHockey).
Despite this, these two are the two most underutilized players on this roster and I wanted to take the time today to give them the respect they deserve and breakdown just how good these two young Leafs have been this season.
All stats below via NaturalStatTrick
Connor Timmins & Nick Robertson Need To Be In Maple Leafs Playoff Lineup
Let's start with Nick Robertson because I believe he is in the tougher situation of the two. Robertson has been trying to consistently crack this roster for two years now and at the start of this season, it looked like he would have a full-time spot on this team.
However, with the emergence of forwards Bobby McMann and Pontus Holmberg, Robertson again fell out of the rotation and was once again getting inconsistent ice time. Now, this is not to slight either McMann or Holmberg; they have been very productive since making the move up to the big club. But Robertson has been just as productive, if not more productive, when given the chance to get on the ice.
On the year, Robertson averages the second most goals and fifth most points among Maple Leafs per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Robertson is also outscoring four players at five-on-five on the Maple Leafs roster who have played more games than he has on the season.
The list of those players is as follows:
Nicholas Robertson - 21 Points in 52 Games Played
Bobby McMann - 21 Points in 52 Games Played
Calle Jarnkrok - 16 Points in 52 Games Played
David Kamph - 13 Points in 74 Games Played
Noah Gregor - 8 Points in 61 Games Played
The Maple Leafs aren't going to take McMann or Kampf out of the lineup, and Jarnkrok is battling injuries. But it is insane that Robertson lost ice time earlier in the year to Noah Gregor, who does nothing well but skate fast and throw hits.
Finally, we saw Robertson starting to get consistent ice time once Gregor started to get scratched more around mid-season, but by this time, Ryan Reaves was ready to start playing again.
Since then Robertson has been losing ice-time to a guy who has no impact on a hockey game outside of throwing a couple hits and the occasional fight to change momentum. The argument against Robertson is that he doesn't fit a third or fourth-line role due to his lack of size and defensive capability, but this could not be further from the truth this season.
Yes, Robertson is small there is no debating that, but to me, a players physicals should mean next to nothing when building a lineup. On the year, Robertson is averaging the second most takeaways per 60 minutes only behind Auston Matthews and averages the fourth most blocked shots at five-on-five among Leafs forwards.
Roberston has positively impacted the game at both ends of the ice this season. We are finally starting to see him blossom into the player fans thought he could be after the Maple Leafs drafted him in the second round of the 2019 NHL entry draft. It would be a shame if he continues to lose ice time to a guy who would be better off in a boxing ring than on an NHL roster.
The Toronto Maple Leafs just aren't good enough to be scratching a player of this quality.
Conor Timmins Has Been Maple Leafs Best Statistical Defensemen
Timmins has battled various nagging injuries and illnesses, so his low games played number is not entirely due to Keefe keeping him out of the lineup. But Timmins has spent his fair share of time in the press box this season when he has been the Maple Leafs best statistical defender.
Despite only playing 24 games so far this season, Timmins ranks second among Leafs defensemen in points per 60 minutes while also averaging the second most takeaways per 60 minutes on the defensive side of the puck. While on the ice at five-on-five, Timmins ranks the highest among Maple Leafs defensemen in all of the following:
- Corsi % (Shot Attempts)
- Fenwick % (Unblocked Shot Attempts)
- Shot On Goal %
- Scoring Chance %
- High-Danger Chance %
- Expected Goal %
The knock on Timmins is that he takes too many penalties, which is a fair assesment as he has the highest minor penalties per 60 average among Maple Leafs defensemen. But this is something I think would come down with consistent playing time.
Timmins is only 25 years old, and has only played 90 career NHL games, and has yet to play more than 31 games in a season.
He has not played enough or consistently enough to get used to the speed and strength of the opposing players in the NHL.
Regardless, having a guy that is averaging one minor penalty every four games he plays is not going to hurt you, especially when that guy impacts the game positively in every other way.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have arguably the worst defensive core of teams that will make the playoffs, and it is crazy to think that Conor Timmins may not make the playoff roster despite being one of the Leaf's top performers when on the ice.