The Toronto Maple Leafs Aren't Good Enough to Scratch Nick Robertson
In fact, scratching him is one of the dumbest things an NHL team has ever done. Ever. It is completely inexcusable and indefensible at this point.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a team that has over-acheived this season, despite almost surely entering the playoffs without home-ice advantage.
The Toronto Maple Leafs currently rank 10th overall by points-percentage, which is disapointing compared to pre-season expectations, but 17th in 5v5 save-percentage, and 13th in 5v5 expected-goals percentage.
That means the results are out-performing both of the best indicators of how a team should perform. The reason is that they are the highest scoring team in the NHL at 5v5.
The Leafs outscore their problems, and they have a lot of problems. (Ironic, that they are now the most one-dimensional they've been in the Auston Matthews Era, considering the perception of the current team as "tough" and "playoff ready").
But perhaps the Leafs biggest weakness is coaching. How does a team that has lost in the playoffs because of their inability to score, sit one of their best scorers?
How does a team that has real problems scoring with the man advantage not use one of their biggest weapons?
It is very confusing.
It is also very stupid. (all stats naturalstattrick.com). In fact, outside of Philadelphia trading their best defenseman and costing themselves a playoff berth, it's hard to find an example of a team doing anything so intentionally self-destructive as not playing one of their best players.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Aren't Good Enough to Scratch Nick Robertson
The Leafs have the 7th best power-play percentage and have scored the 13th most power-play goals in the NHL this year.
Considering the players they have at their disposal, and that they are the NHL's top scoring 5v5 team, that is inexcusable. Nick Robertson averages 45 seconds on the power-play per game, and gets the 11th most PP time on the team per game, if you ignore Steeves and Klingberg - 13th if you don't.
Considering that Nick Robertson scores at a first-line rate, and is the Leafs 3rd most frequent goal scorer on a per-minute of ice-time basis, it's pretty silly to keep him out of the lineup or off the power-play.
The Leafs power-play could be better, and if it was, they would be a better team that wins more. There isn't much of a bigger advantage in hockey than when other teams are afraid to take penalties against you.
Any player the Leafs play ahead of Robertson lacks his game-breaking skills. Nick Robertson doesn't need to see the ice when the Leafs are defending a lead or taking defensive zone faceoffs, so therefore he is unlikely to hurt the team much with the things he's bad at.
However, even if you just played him on the fourth line in the limited role of Ryan Reaves, Robertson's ability to win games just by making the power-play that much more dangerous with his elite shot would be enough to get him into the lineup.
But he's so much more than that. Goal scoring is the hardest thing to do in hockey and he does it well. Robertson is younger and more talented than Bobby McMann, who is the only one who stands between Robertson and Matthews on the Leafs goals per 60 minutes rankings.
Robertson helps the Leafs lean into their biggest strength (5v5 goal scoring) and he could improve what should be their biggest weapon (the power-play).
He had 2 goals in his last 3 games before being scratched in the last game the Leafs played. He has 3 goals in his last 6 games. 11 of his 12 goals on the season are 5v5.
He's scoring at a 20 goal pace from the 3rd line with no power-play time, playing sporadically. William Nylander scores less per minutes than Robertson and has 40 goals, so that should give you some idea of what Robertson's ability is.
Out of players who have played at least 500 minutes, Robertson ranks 21st in the NHL in scoring per minute. And the Leafs play him reluctantly.
The Leafs also win his 5v5 minutes and he has a 50% xGoals rating, so he doesn't hurt the team at all.
Final Argument
What are the Leafs thinking?
Their best feature is scoring, and they regularly scratch one of their best scorers. Their biggest problem is a weaker-than-it-should-be power-play, and they don't even use their second best scorer, who has an ELITE NHL SHOT.
Of the players they play ahead of Robertson - Dewar, Reaves, Kampf, Domi, McMann, Holmberg and Jarnkrok - exactly zero of them have his game-breaking ability.
There is no single move that Sheldon Keefe could make that would have a bigger impact than putting Nick Robertson on the power-play.
And If there is, it's just giving him a regular shift at 5v5.
The Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn't be scratching Nick Robertson. There are at least six players on the roster he should play ahead of, probably more. He wouldn't sit on any other team in the NHL, and he shouldn't sit on this one.
At this point, scatching Nick Robertson is the same as the Toronto Blue Jays scratching David Schnieder - nonsensical to the point of embarassment.
I have had enough of this galaxy-brained non-sense. The Toronto Maple Leafs have no reason to scratch Robertson, and every time they do they look like a bunch of amateurs who have no clue how to run a hockey team.
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Just play the kid already, he's more than earned it.