5 Observations on the Toronto Maple Leafs Six Game Winning Streak
The Toronto Maple Leafs are on fire, but they can't just sit back and assume everything is good from here on out. Here are 5 observations.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have completely turned their season around.
After struggling for consistency throughout the first four months of the season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have won six in a row, making their February record an impressive 7-2.
The reasons for the Leafs struggles this season have been obvious to everyone: they entered the season with a weak blue-line, an injury prone rookie goalie and a goalie they took to arbitration.
Additionally, there was some question to how the team would replace Ryan O'Reilly and Michael Bunting, and for the most part they have not been able to.
However, what they have done is finally find a way to work the disperate parts of their lineup into a workable whole. Initially, having David Kampf - a one dimensional defense only player - as the NHL's most expensive fourth-liner was a major problem because he was paired in the bottom-six with a one-dimensional offensive player, Max Domi.
This was a problem because having Ryan Reaves or Noah Gregor made the fourth line incapable of defensive assignments, while to make use of Max Domi at 3C Keefe had to play him extremely sheltered minutes.
The solution appears to be using Domi on the second line with Bertuzzi and Nylander where his two wingers can evelvate his offensive game and make it so his defensive deficiancies aren't so glaring.
With Tavares playing 3C with a couple of high-scoring rookies (McMann and Robertson are scoring as much or more per minute than William Nylander at 5v5) the Leafs look to be running a very solid top-nine, and the team as a whole just looks so much dangerous.
Lost in the shadow of Robertson and McMann's breakouts is Pontus Holmberg who is giving the Leafs by far the best 4th line minutes they've seen this year to date.
And there is also Timothy Liljegren's rise into a solid top-pairing contributor.
Here then are 5 observations about the Toronto Maple Leafs in light of the recent hot streak. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
The Atlantic Division Is Still Up for Grabs
It wasn't long ago that the Atlantic Division Title appeared to be lost to the Leafs.
But that was before Boston lost four in a row and was caught by Florida. It was also before the Leafs won six in a row and 10 of their last 12.
The importance of winning the Atlantic Division cannot be overstated. If you don't win it, there is a very good chance you have to run an insane Florida-Boston gauntlet just to get to the Eastern Conference finals where would then play a team who didn't have nearly as hard of a path through the playoffs.
In an ideal world, you win the division, play Philadelphia and then take on the winner of Florida/Boston after they beat the hell out of each other.
Currently, the Leafs are eight points back of Boston with two games in hand. They are also just six points back of Florida with one game in hand.
That kind of sounds worse than it is. If they win both their games in hand against Boston, they'd be just six points back, and in baseball parlance that's only 3 games. 2 games back of Florida, with just under 30 games to go.
It's doable, especially the part about catching Boston. They cannot possibly maintain the level of save percentage they have recieved over the last 130-odd games. Eventually they will crack and their lineup will more closely resemeble in the standings how it looks on paper.
Statistically, the Leafs are exactly what we've been saying about them all year - a team with a great core that can win any game where they get decent goaltending and avoid too many mistakes. They are 14th in the NHL in 5v5 expected goals, which is the best predictive stat that there is in the NHL.
Since February 1st, however, they are 8th. They are getting better, and they will soon get a few upgrades. Things are looking good for the Toronto Maple Leafs when it comes to a potential division title.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Still Need a Goalie
Yeah, Ilya Samsonov has been playing pretty good lately.
But he was also so bad earlier in the season that he was placed on waivers and not a single other team wanted anything to do with him.
The fishbowl of playing in Toronto, combined with the non-stop effort it takes to maintain your abilities as a world-class athlete no doubt makes Samsonov's comeback an amazing story of perseverance and dedication.
But this is the NHL and not a Disney Movie.
As great a story as it is, Samsonov should be nowhere near the Toronto Maple Leafs playoff roster.
He isn't reliable. Like any goalie, he is capable of going on a hot streak at any given time, but for the playoffs this year, in a year where it is perhaps the best Auston Matthews will ever play, and in one of his limited prime seasons, the Leafs have to go for it.
And going for it means icing the best possible team. Yes, any goalie can win you the cup. Still, you have a better chance if you have one of the few consistantly reliable ones.
The Leafs have sad idly by as Sergei Bobrovsky, Carey Price, (improbable) Elvis Merzlinkens, and Andrei Vasilevskiy have proved to be unbeatable. Those goalies got into the Leafs player's heads and had a phsychological impact on the playoff series.
Three of those guys show why you should do everything you can to have an elite goalie. The fourth shows that all hope is not lost if you have to bank on Samsonov, but just because sometimes a random goalie gets hot doesn't mean you should bet on it.
I'm not saying it's probable or even in the realm of possibilty to land a franchise-level goalie, but the Toront Maple Leafs at least need to try. Joseph Woll isn't reliable and neither is Martin Jones or Ilya Samsonov.
The Leafs have never paired Auston Matthews with an elite goalie. Why not try? Especially when so many unsung players are filling holes in the lineup that would have prevented it earlier.
Both Juuse Saros and John Gibson might be available. Both are younger and better than you might think. Either one would put the Leafs onto another level.
Less Need Means A Better Chance of Catching a Big Fish
A lot of the commentary around the Maple Leafs over the last month or two has been about the trade deadline and how the Leafs should approach it.
I have always found this to be a ridiculous line of conversation.
Are Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in their primes? Yes? OK, go all-in.
Like, how is this even a discussion? You have two of the best players in franchise history smack dab in the middle of their primes. Therefore, you go for it without hesitation.
For years I've been writing about the fetishization of first round picks and prospects. Literally everyone assumes they are going to win with the magic beans, so there is always value in trading them.
Mistakes will happen, but over time, it's the right strategy. If you are are a playoff team, and you can improve your chances to win, you should not care in the least about draft picks or prospects.
Easton Cowen is a nice prospect, but if he can help the Leafs win the cup this year it's not going to have anything to do with how he plays. Same goes for their first rounder.
I've been for trading these pieces regardless of how the team is performing and I don't think winning six in a row changes anything. This is still the same team with the same weaknesses.
However, with Robertson and McMann scoring at a similar, if not better, rate at 5v5 than William Nylander, the Leafs don't have any issues with depth scoring. The Domi situation seems to have sorted itself out, and I'm doubtful Ryan Reaves or Noah Gregor will be on a playoff roster.
With no forwards to worry about - except maybe depth pieces - the Toronto Maple Leafs are free to pursue fewer pieces, but better ones.
It Would Be Idiotic to Trade Nick Robertson
I've been saying this to anyone who would listen all season long.
Nick Robertson's shot and motor make him an NHL player. He might just end up being a star. There is no way the Leafs should consider trading a player with this much potential and this little trade value.
Other teams are not lining up to acquire an injury-prone prospect who has only just now put together his first long streak of pro games without suffering an injury.
In addition to having almost no trade value, Nick Robertson doesn't make very much money and can almost certainly be re-signed on the cheap.
I swear most people don't even think about the salary cap implications before they decide a player isn't becoming a star fast enough for them.
Just look at Timothy Liljegren, who is finally breaking out. Almost everyone who wants to trade Robertson would have traded him by now too.
Having contributing players on cheap salaries makes such a difference and pays off so much that it's hard to explain how much without going down an insane road of hyperbole and exaggeration.
In a salary cap world, a guy like Nick Robertson, who is scoring at a first line rate (when adjusted for how often he plays) is invaluable. The fact that if Marner or Nylander goes down the Leafs have a first-line offensive talent waiting in the wings helps too.
And you're going to flip this for a depth defender who would need a full 82 games just to be worth one win more than Simon Benoit? Come on.
Outside of the Core Four and Morgan Rielly, the two untouchable players on the Leafs roster are Timothy Liljegren and Nick Robertson. It's important for the Leafs to keep them, and to avoid trading for players that will block them.
Reaves, Benoit, Gregor, Kampf and Domi
The Toronto Maple Leafs need to get rid of Ryan Reaves. It was horribly embarssing when they signed him to a three-year deal and it was even worse when they kept forcing him into the lineup.
It was a clear mistake, let's move on.
Same goes with Noah Gregor. He's fast, but that's it. Nice story, but whatever. He has to go too. I would love to see Alex Steeves get an extended look rather than trading for some dud.
Simon Benoit? Love him. He's a deserved fan favorite but I'm concerned that he doesn't score enough to make him useful. He's been on the ice way too much with Auston Matthews and at the very least that has to stop.
I like how he plays, if he's the #6 that's cool, but you can't pay him with Mark Giordano. He has worked with McCabe and a McCabe/Benoit third pairing is a lot more exciting than that being the second pairing. I would like it better if he was the #7 but if the Leafs get an upgrade to play with Rielly on the top pairing and they stick with Brodie/Liljegren, suddenly playing Benoit regularly becomes a lot more palatable.
In my mind, Domi has won a job for the rest of the year. He's great offensively and using him with Bertuzzi and Nylander is kind of awesome. Even though I wasn't a fan of signing him, I've been saying all year that it shouldn't be too hard for an NHL coach to make use of his talent and it's nice to see Keefe finally coming through in that department.
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As for Kampf, if you're just going to waste him with Reeves don't bother. However, a Holberg-Kampf-Jarnkrok 4th line could be quite amazing. I don't really think any team in the league can match that.