4 Things the Toronto Maple Leafs Must Do to Overcome the Bruins
The frustration is growing among the fan base of the Toronto Maple Leafs after their team has fallen into a 2-1 deficit at the hands of their arch-rivals, the Boston Bruins. If solutions aren’t found quickly, this first round Stanley Cup Playoff showdown is in danger of slipping beyond reach, harkening yet another summer of despair.
Despite so many factors working against them, the Toronto Maple Leafs could very well be leading this series, and on the brink of taking a commanding series lead with a Game 4 victory. Why do they instead find themselves in this desperate situation once again?
The most glaring issue through 3 games has been special teams and, which for Toronto, have been very un-special. A powerplay with a 9.1% success rate (stats from quanthockey.com) and a horrible penalty kill chugging along at 50% will get you onto the golf course pronto.
Next up, we have a lack of scoring from the #2 ranked NHL offense during the regular season. Scoring six goals in three games is simply not good enough. This is a problem we keep seeing every year in the playoffs, and it puts undue pressure on the defense and goaltending to try to be perfect.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Can Overcome Their Problems
The absence of William Nylander is certainly a factor. No team can lose their second leading scorer, especially one with 40 goals and 98 points, without negative consequences. With Mitch Marner struggling, Boston can focus their defensive efforts squarely on stopping Auston Matthews.
Finally, no discussion of Toronto Maple Leaf playoff struggles is complete without mentioning the refereeing. Although the bad calls tend to even out over the course of a series, there’s no question that there should have been whistles just prior to two of Boston’s goals in their 4-2 Game 3 victory. If even one of those plays is blown dead, it’s possible the final outcome is different.
In any event, the past is history. The questions is, what do the Leafs need to do to turn this series around and advance to the next round of the playoffs?
Here are 4 things that would go a long way towards making that happen.
Shoot, Shoot, and Shoot Some More
On average, NHL teams score goals on roughly 10% of their shots on goal. Obviously, snipers such as Auston Matthews will score on a higher percentage of their shots (18.7% in the regular season this year), while many others will come in lower than 10%.
So far this year, of the 16 teams that made it to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, one unfortunate team sits in 16th place (and it’s not even close) with a 6% shooting percentage. Who might that team be?
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you your Toronto Maple Leafs!!
If Toronto just matched its regular season success rate of 11.2%, they would have 11 goals for in this series rather than 6. They would certainly be leading the series 2-1, and quite possibly be heading into Game 4 with a 3-0 lead.
Giving credit where it’s due, Boston’s goaltending has been good all year, and Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark have continued to provide strong results so far through 3 games. But we aren’t talking vintage Martin Brodeur or Patrick Roy heroics here.
Simply put, Toronto Maple Leafs shooters have been extremely unlucky in this series, and it’s about time that luck changed. The best way to help this inevitable reversal along is to shoot, and shoot often. The Leafs have put an impressive average of 33 shots per game on the Boston net so far. However, 40 shots would be even better.
The law of averages has to catch up sooner or later. I mean, it’s a law, right?
Try to Remember This Is Not Tuesday Night Beer League
Judging by some of the dumb mistakes made by various Toronto Maple Leafs in this somewhat important NHL Stanley Cup Playoff series, one might be forgiven for thinking we were watching industrial leaguers taking out their frustrations on each other on a cold January weeknight.
Tyler Bertuzzi, I’m looking at you. We all know Brad Marchand is a pain in the butt, but you can’t swing your stick at him, no matter how good it feels. A 50% penalty kill doesn’t allow anyone any gratuitous violence.
Max Domi, you’re in the doghouse too. Sure, it’s fun throwing those post-whistle jabs and accidentally knocking over Boston goalies during commercial breaks. But let me say it again – 50% penalty kill. If Ryan Reaves can control himself, you can too.
Simon Benoit, your physical play is awesome, keep it up. On a separate note, arena boards are about 4 feet high, and the glass on top of them is another 8 feet or so. Add those numbers up and you get 12 feet. When shooting the puck out of your end (under no pressure), please try to keep the puck at a maximum height of 11 feet (that 50% penalty kill thing, again).
The key here is to focus. FO-CUS. Before every shift, simply tell yourself on the bench, “I have 45 seconds to go out there, work my butt off, don’t do anything stupid, and return to the bench”.
Boston has scored 5 powerplay goals in 3 games, and that fact is killing Toronto’s chances of winning the series.
Block Out the Noise
Being an NHL player in Toronto is a dream come true for many, but it certainly comes with some disadvantages. With a huge fan base and constant media coverage, the pressure to perform and the level of distraction can be overwhelming for many.
What’s wrong with Mitch Marner? Is he a playoff failure? When will William Nylander play? Why doesn’t he just play through whatever’s bothering him? Why do the Leafs let Brad Marchand get under their skin? Questions, questions.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a roller-coaster season so far, perhaps even more so than usual. It may be a question of “which came first,” but it’s been pretty easy to see that the game is fun when things have been going well. Conversely, frustration and anger have emerged when either the team or individual players have struggled.
These guys are just regular people whose performance is affected by the highs and lows of a hockey player’s life.
Maybe part of the secret to playoff success is to just block out the media, the fans, and the opposition, and just go out and enjoy playing hockey.
It sounds counter-intuitive (especially after I stress the need to focus, shoot more, avoid dumb penalties, etc) but perhaps the Toronto Maple Leafs need to stop overthinking and adopt a mindset of “this is supposed to be fun!”
Start Joseph Woll in Game 4
The “Sammy” chants from the Scotiabank Arena faithful (at least the ones who aren’t busy working their phones) are heartwarming, but the fact remains that Ilya Samsonov’s save percentage through the first three playoff games sits at .895.
Compare that to the combined numbers for Boston’s Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, coming in at .939, and the issue becomes clear.
Samsonov just hasn’t been good enough.
Numbers aside, goals like the one Trent Frederick scored in Game 3 on Samsonov just can’t happen. No screen, no deflection, no unbelievable snipe, just a complete softy. The Toronto Maple Leafs struggle mightily to score playoff goals, and can’t afford to give up anything the opposition doesn’t 100% earn.
Woll hasn’t played much since coming back from an extended injury layoff due to a high-ankle sprain, and was somewhat inconsistent in the starts he did get in the final weeks of regular season play.
However, he did play well last season when thrust into the playoff spotlight, and much has been made this year about his focus and ability to block out negativity.
Some may feel putting the inexperienced Woll in at this point would be taking a huge risk, but I would argue that leaving a very average Samsonov in any longer is taking at least as big of a gamble, if not more.
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Taking the conservative route hasn’t worked very well in Toronto over the years, so perhaps it’s time to start making some aggressive moves to shake things up. Other than another playoff series, what do the Toronto Maple Leafs have to lose?