5 Reasons Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Are Going to Win More Than 1 Round
The regular season is almost done, and Toronto Maple Leafs fans are eagerly awaiting the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Optimism never dies in Leaf Nation, but as always, there are questions surrounding this team’s ability to go on an extended playoff run.
Will either Ilya Samsonov or Joseph Woll provide the kind of goaltending the Toronto Maple Leafs need to advance?
Will the talent-thin defensive corps hold up well enough to prevent an avalanche of goals against? Can the top end talent score like they do during the regular season?
Comparing this year’s playoff roster against last year’s, I think last season’s team was better (at least on paper). Also, the Leafs will finish the current season with fewer points than they did in 2022-2023.
Heading into last year’s playoffs, I was fairly confident that the trade deadline additions made by then-GM Kyle Dubas would help the team excel. Guys like Ryan O’Reilly, Luke Schenn and Noel Acciari were exactly what the Toronto Maple Leafs needed. Except that they weren’t.
The new guys played well for the most part, and the Toronto Maple Leafs finally made it out of the first playoff round, but ultimately the Leafs fell somewhat meekly to the Florida Panthers in five games.
Why Did the Toronto Maple Leafs Fail, and What's Different This Time?
Why did they fail against Florida?
Sergei Bobrovsky. Auston Matthews had 26 shots and 32 individual scoring chances during the five game series and didn't score a signle goal. Four of the five games in the series were one-goal games, and that was the difference.
Despite the facet that last year’s team was better overall than the current version, it may well be that this year’s roster has more success.
Let's look at how that can happen.
More Matthews
Auston Matthews scored “only” 40 regular season goals in the 2022-2023 regular season, in what was an off-year for him. He had 60 the year prior, and was clearly not the same player last season, struggling all year with a nagging wrist injury (among other ailments).
This year, Matthews will likely eclipse the 70 goal mark, something not done since 1992-93, when Alex Mogilny and Teemu Selanne notched 76 apiece. Number 34 has been on a tear all year, seemingly scoring at will.
Matthews has never been a playoff slouch, either, with a career tally of 22 goals and 44 points in 50 post-season games (per hockeydb.com).
However, Stanley Cup winning teams usually have one or two guys who simply drive the team bus to victory night after night, and the Toronto Maple Leafs have not had “that guy” in a very long time.
This certainly feels like it could be the year where Auston Matthews scores on any and every goaltender the opposition can put between the pipes. Too often the Leafs have been “goalied” in the playoffs, no matter how well they play otherwise. Not this time.
More Toughness
The image from last season’s series loss to the Florida Panthers that still burns in my brain is that of Sam Bennett body-slamming rookie Matthew Knies to the ice, knocking him out of the playoffs with a concussion. True to form (up to that point), none of the other Toronto Maple Leafs did a damn thing about it.
That has been a complaint about Toronto teams for way too many years, probably since the times when Wendel Clark and Doug Gilmour proudly wore the blue and white. Sure, there have been tough guys on the roster here and there, but the rest of the roster has been known to turtle or skate away indifferently.
Despite GM Brad Treliving’s claim to having brought in some “snot” and “vinegar” last summer, things looked pretty dubious last November when veteran Boston Bruins villain Brad Marchand injured Timothy Liljegren on a questionable play. Once again, no Leaf stepped up with any type of physical response.
It was embarrassing for fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs, and after the game, the players heard it from coach Sheldon Keefe, Treliving, the press, their neighbours, and probably their grandmothers.
The players vowed that it wouldn’t happen again, and to their credit, they’ve been true to their word. Hired muscle Ryan Reaves has been much more visible in the second half of the season, but the team as a whole has adopted an attitude of standing up for each other.
Any assault on a Leaf will now draw a reaction from anyone from Max Domi to Simon Benoit, Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe or Tyler Bertuzzi. Not that these guys will instill fear of a beating in the opposition – the point is that each Toronto Maple Leaf now knows that his teammates have his back, and that has a positive influence on how a team plays.
More Balanced Offense
Coach Sheldon Keefe has recently experimented with spreading the star power over three lines, instead of the usual two, and the results have been surprisingly good.
Since the advent of the “Core 4” many seasons ago, it was rare that any of Auston Matthew, Mitch Marner, William Nylander or John Tavares played regularly on the third line. There has always been lots of tinkering amongst the top two lines, but those four guys were always within the top 6 forwards.
The thinking seemed to be that it would be an insult to a high-scoring star forward to be “demoted” to the third line. Psychologically, it probably made sense.
This year, an age-related decline in the play of captain John Tavares, along with a recent extended injury period for Mitch Marner, allowed Keefe to split Matthews, Nylander and Tavares across three lines.
This also created more opportunities for players lower down on the depth chart to get a chance to skate with the top players. This has certainly contributed to the increased scoring we’ve seen from guys like Bobby McMann and Max Domi (see next section).
What this means for the upcoming playoffs is that it will be that much harder for opposing teams to simply focus on shutting down the top 2 lines of the Toronto Maple Leafs. By creating various third line combinations with scoring punch, the Leafs could present real matchup difficulties this year for opposing coaches.
More Secondary Scoring
It has taken most of the regular season to find the keys to the vault, but it appears that Sheldon Keefe has finally stumbled on some lineup math that may help them greatly come playoff time.
As just discussed, spreading the top 4 forwards out across 3 lines has generated a more balanced attack, but it has also generated more offense from players with somewhat smaller salary cap hits.
Bobby McMann got some run in the top 6, scored a bunch of goals, received a huge boost in confidence, signed a nice contract extension, and has been a solid middle six guy with nice hands (and 15 goals) ever since.
Max Domi was languishing in the bottom six, playing with various linemates that didn’t really maximize his talents, and looking like a failed signing on new GM Brad Treliving’s resume. However, since Mitch Marner’s injury necessitated a new top line of Matthews, Domi and Bertuzzi, that line has been lights out, a seemingly perfect blend of speed, grit and scoring.
Speaking of Bertuzzi, he was the poster boy for bad scoring luck for so much of the season, it seemed he was destined to be an even worse signing than Domi. But somehow he rediscovered his scoring touch, has been potting goals left and right, and has established himself as the net-front presence on the team’s top powerplay unit.
Matthew Knies has had a fine rookie season, with 15 goals to date. Nick Robertson is trying desperately to force Keefe to keep him in the lineup permanently, and has sneakily climbed to the 14-goal mark with limited ice time. Calle Jarnkrok (once back from injury) can provide some offense in addition to his solid all-around play.
Goals are coming from all four lines (even Ryan Reaves has 3!). If the “big guys” falter at times, the Toronto Maple Leafs still have a chance. If the offence gets rolling, look out.
More Resilience
This final point could well be a situation where we consider the glass half full rather than half empty.
Individual Toronto Maple Leafs have faced a lot of adversity this year, and the team is probably stronger as a result. There are plenty of examples to choose from.
The most obvious is probably the case of Ilya Samsonov. The first part of the year was not kind to the Russian goaltender. Game after game, Sammy was letting in soft goals, giving up generous rebounds, overplaying shots, and looking completely lost. It got to the point where he was literally unplayable.
So the Toronto Maple Leafs did what they had to do, and put what had been their number one goaltender on waivers, in the middle of the season. Not surprisingly, Samsonov cleared waivers and went down to the AHL Toronto Marlies, but didn’t play a game there.
He took a break from the game, spent time with the Marlies’ goalie staff and his parents (visiting from Russia), and somehow repaired his fragile state of mind.
Since returning to the Leafs (a minor miracle in itself), Samsonov has re-established himself as the starting goalie heading into the playoffs. He still has his ups and downs, but appears to be able to shrug off a bad goal or a poor game much more easily than before his demotion to the AHL. The ability to bounce back quickly is a much-desired ability for a playoff goaltender.
Other players have also rebounded from tough starts to their season. Tyler Bertuzzi couldn’t buy a goal for months. Ryan Reaves couldn’t play a shift without chalking up a minus, and like Samsonov, was unplayable.
On defence, the Leafs have employed Morgan Rielly and a revolving door of “depth” players. TJ Brodie has struggled mightily at times. Mark Giordano has very much looked like the oldest player in the NHL, but is determined he still has something to offer this season. Jake McCabe struggles with inconsistency. Timothy Liljegren struggles to stay healthy.
Despite all of these issues, the Toronto Maple Leafs have marched on, a flawed team that still has a chance to go a long way this year in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
manual
They say that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. It may also win you a Stanley Cup.