4 Key Factors in the Maple Leafs Upsetting the Bruins
Another regular season has come and gone for this Toronto Maple Leafs team. This year the Leafs finished with a 46-26-10 record which gives them 102 points and third in the Atlantic division. (Standings stats from NHL.com)
What looked like a pretty certain playoff match-up of the Toronto Maple Leafs against the Panthers flipped on the second last game of the season for the Leafs after blowing a two-goal lead against Florida.
With Boston losing their last two games against Washington and Ottawa it gives us this matchup against who is seen as the boogeyman to this franchise.
The Leafs aren't the favourites going into this series, which if we're being honest doesn't matter a whole lot to this team.
The playoff success has been non-existent regardless if they're the favourites heading into the series or the underdog.
The Leafs beat the Lightning for their first series win since 2004 last season. Although they were outplayed, they got the job done. So heading into this series how can the Leafs get the job done against this Bruins team?
4 Key Factors in the Maple Leafs Upsetting the Bruins
Special Teams
It seems as though every year the Maple Leafs power play goes ice cold when the playoffs come around.
This year the power play has been very hot and cold and at the time I'm writing this, they are currently seventh in the league in powerplay percentage. If the Leafs are going to have a chance to win this series it is crucial that this power play can figure it out in the playoffs.
The penalty kill has been incredibly concerning this season. The Leafs finished the season with a 76.9 percent penalty kill percentage which ranks them tied for 22nd in the league.
The penalty kill is crucial in the regular season but even more so in the playoffs, the struggles this team has faced so far this year are concerning.(All special teams stats from ESPN.com)
Stars Playing Like Stars
If Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares play like they're paid, the Leafs win this series.
The thing about that sentence is the Leafs haven't had all four of these guys play like they can in a single series at the same time, throughout this era of Leafs teams.
Every year after every playoff loss, you look at this core and wonder where they went. Probably the most complete performance we've seen from these guys in a playoff series was last year against the Tampa Bay Lightning and even then I don't think Marner played his best hockey.
On paper, the Leafs are a much deeper team offensively but Bobby McMann isn't going to win you a series. The stars will.
The Leafs went on an improbably 0-11 run during elimination games, and that doesn't happen without bad luck - things like Marner going 18 playoff games (or whatever it was) without a goal, or Matthews failing to score on 32 individual scoring chances against Florida last year.
But that said, eventually these guys have to step it up and dominate like they are paid to do. Auston Matthews scores nearly a goal-per-game in the regular season, and if he ever brings that kind of production to the Stanley Cup Playoffs then the Leafs will likely win the Series.
Team Defence and Goaltending
The most obvious answer on how any team can win any series is if they get great goaltending. Unfortunately, I'm not high on the Leafs goaltending this year.
Samsonov is shaky and Woll hasn't been the same since he got back from the high ankle sprain he suffered against the Ottawa Senators. Ullmark and Swayman would both be starters on the Leafs and Boston has them as a tandem.
So how are the Leafs going to be able to overcome this? They're going to have to be fully committed to a strong defensive game.
I'm not the biggest fan of the blue line the Leafs have constructed this year so now more than ever the forwards are going to need to be steady in their end at all times. Losing defensively responsible guys like Pierre Engval, Alex Kerfoot, Noel Acciari, Ryan O'Reilly, and Zach Aston-Reese on the forward core and replacing them with guys like Max Domi have hurt the Leafs defensively this season. The Leafs have to keep it simple in their end and limit the number of mind-numbing mistakes they make.
Physicality From the Stars
In prior years, the Leafs have been considered soft, but this year it's been a different story. In this series, the Leafs are going in with more grit than any other year however what matters is how the core will respond.
If Marner, Nylander or Matthews shy away from any physicality and let Boston hinder the way they play the series is already over. The stars on this team need to be okay with the physicality and get into scrums or even just defend themselves.
Physicality also isn't just hitting and fighting, it is how you play the game. The majority, if not all, of the goals Matthews scored last year, came right in front of the net. If Matthews, Nylander, and Marner all want to play a perimeter style of hockey then the Leafs are done.
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Matthews needs to continue to go to the net because that's how he is going to score in the playoffs as the space he has in the regular season won't be there. Nylander needs to drive the net and we finally need to see Marner take the game over like he is capable of.