3 Things to Avoid If Brad Treliving Doesn't Want to be the Worst GM Since JFJ
The Toronto Maple Leafs GM is in a tough spot.
The Toronto Maple Leafs will play twice more before the NHL Trade Deadline, which is on Friday.
First they will play Buffalo tomorrow, then on Thursday they'll take on the Boston Bruins, but the results shouldn't factor into what the Toronto Maple Leafs need to do.
It is clear to everyone what the Leafs need:
A goalie - Joseph Woll is a rookie coming off of a major injury, and who appears to be injury prone. Ilya Samsonov is terrible and shouldn't be anywhere near the team come playoff time, therefore a goalie is a necessity.
The only question is if they get a no-doubt starter and use Woll as a back-up, or they just acquire somebody to replace Samsonov and go with a duo. I'm fine with either, but I don't see how they can pass up the opportunity to trade for Juuse Saros if he's available.
The second thing the Leafs need is a centre to replace Max Domi who, despite his popularity, is a replacement player who is overpaid at $3 million by about $2 million. It's clear that Max Domi is a liability and the most obvious place to upgrade the forwards.
The third thing, and really, this could just as easily be ranked #1, is a defenseman who can move the puck. Hopefully it's a superstar who can usurp Morgan Rielly and push him into a more suitable #2 role, but at the very least it must be an above average puck-mover because the Leafs blue-line is horrendous at moving the puck and only got worse last week.
Anyways, with that in mind here are three things the Leafs need to avoid heading into Friday.
Trading for Colten Parayko
Probably the most ridiculous of all Trade Deadline suggestions is Colten Parayko.
He is 30 years old and signed for a $6.5 million cap-hit until the year 2030. In 2028 his no-trade clause becomes a no-movement clause, and he's already overpaid compared to what he does. (all cap info capfriendly.com).
Players over 30, at least not ones named Zach Hyman, do not get better.
Parayko once won a Stanley Cup as a member of the St. Louis Blues, and he plays right-defense, so people think he's good, but hockey is a repuation based game and almost no one is looking at the numbers he putting up, which are terrible.
Yeah, the defensive numbers are fine, but since he ranks as one of the worst offensive players in the NHL, that goes to waste. Hockey is a holistic game and any attempts to break it down into seperate individual units of offense and defense do not work.
Known as a defensive defenseman, Parayko currently has a neutral rating on defense, and a negative rating offensively, making him overall a player who hurts his team. (ratings from the Athletic.com Player Cards).
It is a myth that good players will have bad numbers on bad teams - just last year Jake McCabe had excellent numbers despite playing on a team worse than the Blues are today. The facts are that Parayko has just declined heavily since his peak and he's not the player he once was.
St. Louis has lost Parayko's minutes in three of the last four seasons, including each of the last two. He has not finished a season with a positive expected-goals rating, nor been a positive puck-possession player since 2018-19.
That is five seasons of being a negative value player.
Obviously this would be a stupid idea for the Leafs under any circumstances, but what makes it worse is the Leafs current lineup. They already have a group of defenseman who are bad at moving the puck. They played two of the worst defensive players in the NHL in their lineup the last time they played and cannot afford to add a third one to their team.
This is by far the worst idea out there.
Playing Ryan Reaves in the Playoffs
The narrative that Ryan Reaves is playing well and has really improved of late is complete nonsense.
Sure, he's better than he was, but what he was was unplayable. Now he's just a replacement player blocking a more talented player with a higher upside from seeing the ice.
Instead of Ryan Reaves the Leafs could play Nick Abruzzesse, Alex Steeves or any number of Marlies.
Reaves is a terrible player whose three-year contract is an albatross. The one skill he does bring, fighting, is not necessary in the playoffs where there is basically never is any.
The Leafs players love him, and while I'm sure his leadership and his status as an NHL warrior make him good in the room, you cannot escape the fact that every team you play will have a better player in their lineup at the equivalent position.
You cannot espcape the fact that in a salary cap league with full parity, marginal gains can be the difference between winning and losing.
Sure, most games are decided by stars, but a situation where the Leafs lose by one goal and one game in a close series because their fourth line was consistantly destroyed is a distinct possibility.
Reaves shouldn't be on this team at his age with his abilities. He's a fun player to cheer for, and occaisionally entertaining as well. But you can't play him in a playoff game.
Spending Big on Adam Henrique or Adam Larsson
The names are interchangable. It could be Henrique, it could be Laughton or any number of low-impact overrated name-brand players whose names get bandied about during trade season.
At best, these players offer marginal upgrades on what the Leafs already have. And while marginal upgrades to matter, the Leafs need a major upgrade.
Their blue-line needs the addition of a star player, as do their forwards.
There is no doubt that Adam Larsson is an upgrade to what the Leafs have - he's better than anyone on their blue-line for sure except McCabe and Rielly, and he isn't much worse than those guys, if he's worse at all.
Adam Larrson would be an excellent upgrade overall, but mostly becauze the Leafs blue-line is so bad. He would also fail to address their biggest need, which is a defenseman who can move the puck.
But most of all, he isn't a star. He is a very good player, but his impact isn't going to be huge. There is a difference between Simon Benoit and Adam Larsson, but not a huge one. If Adam Larsson was one of two blue-line upgrades, I'd be pretty excited to have him. He's clearly better than what the Leafs have. My point here is that they need a star player, and an offensive one more than they need another defense-first defenseman.
The Leafs need a real upgrade. A star-level upgrade. Barring a name that isn't really being talked about - like Vince Dunn maybe, or Zach Werenski - the only player like this available is Noah Hanifin and I think it will be a huge disapointment if he isn't in the Leafs lineup on Saturday night - Larsson just isn't that kind of upgrade.
And all the same arguments apply to Henrique. He's good. He's better than Domi, but he doesn't make the Toronto Maple Leafs significanlty better.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs need a significant, star-level upgarde. They also need to avoid Colton Parayko and to improve their team enough by Friday that Ryan Reaves is no longer an option for the playoffs.