As the face of the Toronto Maple Leafs and one of the NHL's premier goal-scorers, Auston Matthews enters every season with sky-high expectations. But this year, Draftkings is projecting something Leafs fans might find hard to digest: a second consecutive subpar year for the team's best player.
Matthews is being pegged to finish below his career averages across multiple key statistical categories, including goals and total points. It seems oddsmakers are suggesting that Matthews will miss his former teammate and winger, all-star Mitch Marner, now with the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Maple Leafs' star center is coming off an injury-plagued season where he scored only thirty-three goals, far below his franchise-best sixty-nine that he achieved during the 2023-2024 season.
The DraftKings projections illustrate a lack of confidence that Matthews can excel without his former linemate. They also suggest that the Leafs' three-time Rocket Richard winner may struggle to stay healthy. Should Leafs' fans be concerned?
Caution Projections for Matthews
DraftKings has set the over/under for Matthews' goals during the 2025-2026 season at 45.5. It's the second-highest number behind Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers at 47.5.
The over/under for Matthews' points is 90.5. That number is tied for the ninth-highest league-wide with Mikko Rantanen of the Dallas Stars and Artemi Panarin of the New York Rangers. Players ahead of Matthews include Connor McDavid (118.5), Nathan MacKinnon (110.5), Nikita Kucherov (110.5), Draisaitl (106.5), David Pastrnak (100.5), Kirill Kaprizov (100.5), Marner (92.5), and Jack Eichel (91.5).
On the surface, the comparison to Matthews' peers is not egregious, but a closer look reveals a conservative projection for the former Hart trophy winner who is in the prime of his career. Despite playing in just sixty-seven games last season, the soon-to-be 28-year-old has played in seventy-plus games in five of his nine years in the NHL, five of eight if the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season is excluded.
Matthews' average eighty-two game season sees him score a shade over fifty-two goals, slightly under forty-three assists for ninety-five points. DraftKings favors Matthews to register over ninety points (-140), but offers long odds (+1200) for him to record over a hundred and ten points. His career high is 107.
Having played over eighty games only twice in his career is a factor to consider with the forecast. No longer having Marner as his setup man also accounts for the conservative prognostication. Yet, in five of the Maple Leafs' last six seasons, Matthews has played ninety percent of the team's games (347 of 384). Most of his 37 missed games over that stretch came last season (15).
In all, DraftKings' season projections for Matthews appear modest when weighed against his track record and scoring potential. If he remains healthy, there is every reason to believe he'll not only meet but surpass these expectations with ease. Matthews will be highly motivated to put last year's pedestrian (by his standards) numbers behind him. Given his proven ability to produce at an elite level, even in shortened or injury-affected seasons, Matthews is well-positioned to outperform these moderate benchmarks. For fans and bettors alike, the real question isn't whether he'll reach these numbers, but just how far he'll exceed them.