The Toronto Maple Leafs are entering a critical new era, following their worst season in a decade. Their dreadful 2025-26 season resulted in the good fortune of winning the NHL Draft lottery.
With the first overall pick, general manager John Chayka selected Gavin McKenna, who now carries the immense weight of helping revitalize a proud franchise. As the teenage phenom steps onto the ice, he faces the challenge of turning around the team's fortunes while managing the pressure of a hockey-obsessed market.
As the top pick from the draft, following McKenna's progress will be one of the top storylines when the new NHL season begins. Former NHL coach Pierre McGuire and former goaltender Martin Biron recently shared their thoughts on how McKenna would fare.
Pierre McGuire Compares McKenna's Impact to Matthew Schaefer
In a recent appearance on the Toronto Sports Rush podcast with host Kyle Andrew, McGuire noted the influence of 2025 first overall pick Matthew Schaefer on the New York Islanders, tying the record for goals by a rookie defenseman and winning the Calder Trophy. He kept the Islanders in the playoff picture until late in the season. He described Schaefer as having a "dramatic impact" on New York, then said, "I think Gavin McKenna can have the same kind of impact, but up front."
"I think Gavin McKenna can have the same kind of impact, but up front."Pierre McGuire compares McKenna-Schaefer
McGuire believes McKenna's support system with the Leafs will help him succeed. He listed Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Jake McCabe as leaders who can help McKenna's transition to the NHL. Andrew added that with Matthews and William Nylander, McKenna won't have to carry the offensive burden for quite some time while in Toronto, a luxury that former first overall pick Connor Bedard didn't have with the Chicago Blackhawks.
Andrew observed that the Maple Leafs having many veteran, star players to support McKenna is rare for most first overall picks. McGuire compared the Leafs' on-ice veteran support to Jaromir Jagr when McGuire was with the Pittsburgh Penguins and how that will alleviate some of the pressure on McKenna. He also noted the Maple Leafs' off-ice help with former experienced star players like Mats Sundin (also a former first overall pick) and Daniel Alfredsson.
Biron Believes McKenna Can Help Revive Auston Matthews
Biron, on a recent episode of TSN's That's Hockey, was asked to predict McKenna's impact on the Maple Leafs for the upcoming season. The former NHL goaltender foresees McKenna having a "playmaking impact," depending on who he plays with. His advice was to put McKenna with Matthews "right away" as linemates.
He predicted that by pairing McKenna's playmaking ability with Matthews, he could return to being a 50-goal scorer. Biron also sees the Maple Leafs' power play benefiting from McKenna's presence. He acknowledged it's a lot to ask of a teenager drafted first overall, but likes McKenna's skill set and that he demonstrated the ability to adapt after adjusting during the second half of his NCAA season with Penn State.
Helping Matthews and the power play is where McKenna will have the biggest impact, said Biron. He projected that McKenna will not reach twenty goals, but feels he can "easily" reach 50 or 60 assists in his playmaking role.
McKenna's rookie season is sure to be must-watch viewing. Whether he lives up to the standard of Schaefer's Calder-winning dominance or locks in as an elite playmaker, analysts agree that the first-overall pick is a big key to Toronto's future. The expectations are undeniably massive, but McKenna possesses the rare, generational talent required to meet them head-on.
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