This may sound crazy, but missing the playoffs could be the best case scenario for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season.
I find it interesting that we all think the Toronto Maple Leafs are guaranteed a playoff spot when they only have a five-point advantage on the second wild card team right now. They have a 4-6-0 record in their past 10 games and have been struggling, while the team's behind them are catching up.
I still think it would be a collapse if they missed the playoffs, but who's to say this losing streak won't continue? It feels like they were bailed out by phenomenal goaltending at the beginning of the year, but this team doesn't have enough depth scoring or solid defensemen to sustain their early play.
The numbers back this up. The Leafs were 1st overall in 5v5 save percentage on December 12th, and they were also 5th overall by points-percentage. Since then, they are ranked in the mid-twenties in goaltending while their record is 15th best in the league. (naturalstattrick.com).
Missing the Playoffs Could Be Best Case Scenario For Toronto Maple Leafs
I know that John Tavares and Matthew Knies missing time has hurt the team's offense, but they still have Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander to contribute, so it shouldn't matter that much. There aren't too many team's in the league that can lose a former 40-goal scorer to injury, then still have two of them in the line-up, so that should be more than enough offense to win.
However, as shown by the team's play in January, they are not deep enough offensively to go on a long playoff run. This may all change and someone like Max Domi may turn into an unsung hero likeFernando Pisani in 2006 with the Edmonton Oilers, but I would be shocked.
Over the past nine years, the Leafs have been a consistent playoff team, however they only have one playoff round victory. Within that time, they've fired two coaches, let two GM's walk away, but have kept the same core.
For some reason the organization has kept the architecht Brendan Shanahan, who has continued to believe in this core that doesn't win. With Mitch Marner and John Tavares set to become UFA's this offseason, if the Leafs make the playoffs and lose in the First Round, history would suggest that the team would just re-sign Tavares and Marner and run it back again.
However if they miss the playoffs, which is something we haven't seen happen since 2015, then there's a big possibility of huge organizational change, which I think can be good. It's nice to be a consistent franchise who makes the playoffs, but the team has zero excuses for not winning multiple rounds by now.
If they miss the playoffs, it would surely mean the end to Shanahan and GM Brad Treliving, which I think is great. They would maybe keep Craig Berube, which is fine, but it should also mean that Tavares and Marner leave. Or, they may look to re-sign Marner and then trade William Nylander, or Morgan Rielly, or both. Essentially a huge trade should happen, similar to what we've recently seen with the NY Rangers.
This team needs a shake-up and has probably needed it for two years now but the organization has been afraid of change.. However, if they were to miss the playoffs this year, it could spark a "re-tool" which is exactly what they need.
They don't need to blow it up and star over, but they can move a few pieces around and upgrade in a few position's that have been needed for years. Obviously I'd love to see a long playoff run this year, but overall, it could be more beneficial to the team to miss the playoffs, and gear up for a new regime in 2025-26.