Auston Matthews could be the obstacle that keeps the Toronto Maple Leafs from re-signing Mitch Marner. Specifically, Matthews’ contract could be the roadblock keeping Marner and the Leafs from working out a deal.
The thought had already occurred to me, but in a recent piece in The Athletic, insider Pierre LeBrun suggested that both the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs face similar dilemmas with their top free agents.
In particular, the hold-up keeping Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen from signing deals is what LeBrun called each team’s “internal cap.”
This “cap” refers to a self-imposed limit on the maximum deal each team could dish out to their free agents. Specifically, the Avalanche would be reluctant to pay anyone beyond Nathan MacKinnon’s $12.6 million AVV, while the Leafs would be unwilling to give anyone more than Matthews’ $13.25 million cap hit.
Based on that logic, neither Rantanen nor Marner can expect to get paid more, at least AAV-wise, than their team’s perceived top player.
But what if Marner feels that he’s worth more than Matthews? What if Marner feels that he should get a bigger deal than Matthews?
The Leafs would be in a tough spot, trying to find a way to get Marner signed without upstaging Matthews. It’s worth pointing out that part of the chatter during Matthews’ contract negotiations in 2023 was that he wanted to be the league’s highest-paid player.
The Leafs paid Matthews more than then-captain John Tavares, and Tavares didn’t seem to have an issue with it. While we could debate where Marner is worth more than Matthews, the fact is that salary inflation is a major factor impacting Marner’s potential contract.
Given the direction top player’s contracts are trending, there’s reason to believe Marner could be on par with Matthews, at the very least.
Toronto Maple Leafs Could Solve Issues by Deferring Marner’s Contract
The Edmonton Oilers faced a similar situation earlier this summer with Leon Draisaitl’s impending free agency. The Oilers didn’t muck about, giving Draisaitl an eight-year deal with a $14 million AAV. Draisaitl is making more than Connor McDavid at the moment.
But there’s a wrinkle: McDavid will be a free agent in 2026. That situation means that the Oilers will likely negotiate a new deal with McDavid starting this summer. With McDavid’s track record, he could get $15 million per season.
Sure, McDavid’s worth it. But the larger issue is how the cap hit affects the team’s salary cap structure. The rumour is that the Salary Cap ceiling will be going up to $92 million next season with a potential $100 million within the next two to three years.
If that’s the case, great. The Leafs, Oilers, and Avalanche can back up the Brinks truck to keep their top stars. However, given the NHL’s salary cap structure, the cap is a finite resource. In other words, there’s only so much teams can draw from.
So, LeBrun suggested going the deferral route the Anaheim Ducks went with Frank Vatrano. If the Leafs choose to defer Marner’s deal, or at least a portion of it, the Leafs can not only knock Marner’s cap hit down, but they could also give him the money he wants.
For instance, the Leafs could give Marner an eight-year deal worth $15 million AAV. But instead of taking on that cap hit, the Toronto Maple Leafs can extend the payment window 10 years, which brings the AAV down to $12 million.
Marner benefits as he gets two additional years, even when his contract expires. If Marner accepts such an arrangement, he could be seen as giving the Leafs a hometown discount without actually doing so.
Marner will get paid. But he’ll just need to wait a couple of more years to reel in the whole deal.