Toronto Maple Leafs forward John Tavares is having another fantastic season this year, but based on the salary-cap structure, he should probably be the odd-man out next year.
When you look at the Toronto Maple Leafs roster, it's actually set up very nicely next year because they only ($6.1M invested in goaltending, while two huge contracts - Mitch. Marner and John Tavares - are coming off the books.
The Leafs may elect to sign one or both of those players, but obviously Tavares will come in at a much lower number than he is getting right now. The Leafs will also have to sign Matthew Knies.
There are rumours that the Leafs are working on contracts for all three right now, but they should be careful because they don't want to box themselves in, fail in the first round again, and then be forced into trading Nylander to make some kind of changes.
John Tavares Should Be The Odd-Man Out This Summer
If we look into the crystal ball and predict the future, as much as I love Tavares, I can't see a world where his play continues at this level. It's nice that he has barely declined, but at 34 he doesn't have many elite years left.
Tavares staying in Toronto should depend on how they do in the playoffs this year. However, if the Leafs advance to the Conference Finals, bringing Tavares back on a more team-friendly deal could solidify their 2/3C position for years to come. However, if Tavares wants to continue to get paid like a star, the Leafs should take a page out of the Tampa Bay Lightning's book and let their beloved superstar captain walk in free-agency.
I always looked at Knies as Zach Hyman or Michael Bunting type of player who you shouldn't overpay, but those players were much older. Knies is playing at an extremely high-level and is only 22-years-olds and can't be a player you lose as an RFA. Instead, you need to sign him long-term and make sure that he's a member of this team for a long time. However, he isn't going to replace Tavares in the Core Four - Knies just isn't ever going to be that level of Franchise Player.
I know that's not fun to talk about the offseason when the regular season is only halfway through but it's something we need to think about. The Leafs would be making a huge mistake if they re-signed Tavares right now and should wait until the summer to negotiate.