In the NHL, not all wins carry the same weight, and divisional games often matter most when shaping the standings. Points earned against familiar rivals don't just add up; they directly push teams up or down in the standings. That's where the Toronto Maple Leafs have fallen short so far this season.
Despite a congested Eastern Conference standings keeping them relevant, their struggles in divisional matchups have played a major role in their current plight, last place in the Atlantic Division, and one point from the conference basement.
This weekend, however, presents a golden opportunity to change that narrative, with critical games against the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings that could finally spark a turnaround the Leafs have been looking for.
Leafs Need to Start Beating Divisional Opponents
Last season, their first with Craig Berube behind the bench, the Maple Leafs had a 17-8-1 record against Atlantic Division rivals. Of all of their division opponents, only the Montreal Canadiens had a better record (18-7-1) in games within the division.
The Maple Leafs also had a stellar record against Eastern Conference opponents. Their in-conference record of 33-16-1 for 67 points was five points better than any other Atlantic rival (Tampa Bay Lightning 27-15-8 for 62 points). The Washington Capitals were the only team in the East to achieve more points (32-14-4, 68 points) against conference opponents.
The combined strong records against divisional and conference opponents were greatly responsible for the Leafs winning the Atlantic Division and earning the second seed for the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Thus far in the 2025-26 season, the Maple Leafs have a 11-11-2 record against Eastern Conference opponents. That .500 points-percentage is not only the worst among Atlantic Division teams, but also the worst in the Eastern Conference.
The Leafs have a 4-6-1 record against divisional opponents so far this season. The 9 points earned is second-worst to the Florida Panthers (3-4-0 record, 6 points), but Toronto's .409 points-percentage is worst in the division behind Florida's .429.
The Maple Leafs won their season opener, a division game over the Montreal Canadiens. Immediately afterwards, they dropped both ends of a home-and-home against the Detroit Red Wings.
Other Atlantic Division games have included the Leafs splitting a pair of games against the Buffalo Sabres, but Buffalo gaining an extra point for an overtime loss. The Maple Leafs have lost twice in regulation to the Boston Bruins.
Toronto has played two more against Montreal, losing both, once in regulation and once in a shootout. The Leafs have lost ground in the standings to four out of the six divisional opponents they have faced this season. They won their only meeting against both the Panthers and the Lightning. This weekend marks the first time they have played the Senators.
As last season's success and this year's struggles affirm, if the Maple Leafs have any hope of making the playoffs for a tenth straight season, it starts with winning games within the division. That makes this weekend's slate all the more important.
The Red Wings currently lead the Atlantic Division with 47 points from 38 games played. That's ten points ahead of Toronto, which has played two fewer games. Lose in regulation, and the Leafs fall twelve points back. Win in regulation, the Maple Leafs trail by eight with two games in hand.
The Senators are currently one point out of the second wild card position in the Eastern Conference with 41 points after 36 games. The Panthers hold the last playoff position with 42 points in 36 games. Lose in regulation to Ottawa, and the Leafs fall seven points behind the Sens and eight behind Florida. Win in regulation, the Maple Leafs climb within three points of the Senators and four of Florida, who they play on January 6.
With more than forty games still left on the schedule after this weekend, the Maple Leafs have plenty of time to reshape their season, but the math makes one thing clear: divisional games matter.
Wins against their Atlantic Division rivals will have a direct impact on playoff positioning, and with Toronto having no margin for error, it's an area they can no longer afford to ignore.
If the Maple Leafs truly want to climb the standings and salvage their season, it can't be put off for later. It has to start now, by taking points from their division rivals and proving a turnaround is more than talk.