Earlier this season, just about everyone in the Toronto media (myself included) had written Matias Maccelli off. When the Toronto Maple Leafs traded for him over the summer, he was seen as a low-risk, potentially high-reward proposition.
After all, if he flamed out, the only thing that it would cost the Leafs would be a third-round pick. And for most of this season, he was a washout. He got looks all over the lineup, eventually hitting the press box as a healthy scratch.
But since the Olympics, Maccelli has notched 13 points in 16 games. He had two assists in the 4-3 win over the New York Rangers on Wednesday night, and, well, he’s actually looking like a serviceable middle-six winger.
That situation has now made the Maple Leafs' offseason decision tree a bit more complex. The easy out would have been to forego extending Maccelli a Qualifying Offer (QO) this summer. That would have made the 25-year-old an unrestricted free agent instead of a restricted free agent.
But his play has now opened the door for the Maple Leafs to consider holding onto him. The problem is that QO is $4.1 million. That’s almost a million higher than his current $3.25 million cap hit.
If the Leafs just let Maccelli walk, he’ll get paid elsewhere. The thin free agent market will see other clubs give him at least that much, if not more.
Perhaps there might be a false compromise. The Leafs could agree to pay the $4.1 million QO while Maccelli takes a one-year, show-me deal. If he delivers, the two sides can work something out. If he can’t carry over his current success into next season, the Leafs could cut bait whenever they can. It might not be what either side wants, but it’s better than going to arbitration.
Maple Leafs would have trouble finding replacement on UFA market
The Maple Leafs would have a devil of a time replacing Maccelli on the UFA market. The main issue is that the market will be bone-dry this summer. Unless the Leafs had a realistic chance at someone like Alex Tuch, if he even gets to market, there’s really no top-six winger the Leafs could splurge on.
So, keeping Maccelli could be a solid middle-ground solution. He wouldn’t be an upgrade necessarily, but the Leafs could do much worse. Plus, even a $4.1 million cap hit wouldn’t be a bad price for a guy potentially hitting 20 goals in a season.
As implausible as that seems, Maccelli currently has 14 tallies. With about 10 games left in the Leafs’ season, he’s not going to score six and break 20. But even two or three more tallies could push him to his career high of 17 and 40 points. With the going rate for some forwards this season (wink, wink, Kiefer Sherwood), the Leafs would do well to give Maccelli one more shot.
If we took this thought process even further, Maccelli could take a show-me deal, have a career year, and then dump the Leafs for greener pastures elsewhere.
Sure, such an attitude would not sit well with Leafs Nation. But at the end of the day, the NHL is a business like any other.