Maple Leafs vs. Senators Playoff Preview: Where does each team have the edge?

The Leafs are coming off a first place finish in the division and have their deepest roster in years. Will it be enough to take down their provincial rivals?
Mar 15, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN;  Ottawa Senators goalie Linus Ullmark (35) makes a save as defensemen Artem Zub (2) and Thomas Chabot (72) hold back Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) in the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Mar 15, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Ottawa Senators goalie Linus Ullmark (35) makes a save as defensemen Artem Zub (2) and Thomas Chabot (72) hold back Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) in the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are about to renew a bitter playoff rivalry with a familiar foe. It's been over 20 years, but older members of each team's fan base remember the intensity of the early 2000s when the teams met four times in five years.

The Leafs' first division title in 25 years earned them a first-round date with the Ottawa Senators, their provincial rivals. The narratives are numerous and will be fascinating to watch unfold.

The young and hungry Sens have reached the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons. The Leafs made the playoffs for a ninth consecutive season, the league's longest current streak, but will again attempt to shake the ghosts of recent playoffs past.

The Leafs ended the season by winning nine of their last 10 games to capture the division. They have many reasons to feel good about themselves entering the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The first hiccup, however, will see the pressure mount. Can Toronto finally overcome its previous failures and go on an extended run?

First, the Maple Leafs have to get past the Senators. Let's take a deeper look at each team's key areas and predict how we see the latest chapter in the Battle of Ontario ending.

Battle of Ontario: Positional Breakdown

Forwards: The accomplishments of the Leafs' forwards far outweigh those of their Ottawa counterparts. Auston Matthews is a two-time 60-goal scorer with a Hart Trophy and multiple Rocket Richard trophies. William Nylander is coming off a career-high 45-goal regular season, the third time he has reached the 40-goal mark. Mitch Marner recently became the first winger in Leafs history to tally 100 points in a season.

Brady Tkachuk led the Senators with 29 goals. That's the same number of goals as Matthew Knies, fourth highest with the Leafs. Tim Stutzle led Ottawa with 79 points, just ahead of the Maple Leafs third and fourth top point-getters, Matthews and John Tavares, who had 78 and 74 points, respectively. Matthews also missed 15 games due to injury.

The Senators goal scoring is more dispersed throughout their lineup compared to the top-heavy Leafs. Ottawa had 10 players reach double-digits in goals scored to Toronto's seven.

The Maple Leafs problem has been their stars' inability to carry that production into the playoffs. The only time in recent playoff history when their best players produced simultaneously was their only series victory in eight years, the 2022-2023 first-round win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Edge: Maple Leafs

Schedule