After an injury-riddled 2024-25 campaign, which saw him post a career low in goals, Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs are looking for a return to form.
In a down year, the team's star center battled through inconsistency and setbacks while struggling to find his usual productive, goal-scoring touch. The Leafs' captain admitted it was a tough year physically during his postseason media availability after Toronto's elimination by the Florida Panthers in a second-round Stanley Cup playoff series.
Upon arrival at this year's training camp, the Maple Leafs' franchise player declared his health was "good." Unlike last season, when Matthews' injury woes started early in camp, he was unencumbered through the preseason.
That is great news for the Leafs. After dismantling the "Core Four" and saying goodbye to Matthews' long-time right winger, Mitch Marner, the team's success hinges on a return to dominance by the three-time Rocket Richard winner.
Matthews Marred by Injury in First Year as Leafs' Captain
Matthews' first season as the Maple Leafs captain was memorable for the wrong reasons. He was slowed during training camp and the preseason by injury. The mysterious ailment later caused him to miss most of November and had him looking for alternative treatment in Germany.
The dominant stretches that were so prevalent throughout his other eight NHL seasons were fewer. In total, Matthews missed fifteen games, scoring only 33 goals, a career low.
His shooting percentage was the second-lowest of his career at 12.6. He had only three multi-goal games, an unusually low number, and he uncharacteristically missed the net more often than he did in past seasons. He averaged his fewest shots per game (3.9) since the 2018-2019 season.
His advanced statistics were also well below his career averages. His Corsi-For percentage (CF%) and Expected-Goals-For (xGF) were his lowest in years.
The postseason numbers were also subpar. Matthews scored only three goals in thirteen games, to go along with eight assists. After two assists in a Game 1 win over the Panthers, his Game 6 winner was his lone point in the final four games of the series as the Leafs bowed out meekly to the eventual Stanley Cup champions.
What to Expect From Matthews in 2025-26
Health permitting, expect a bounce-back season from the Leafs' superstar. A healthy Matthews is unlikely to repeat his abnormally low shooting percentage and advanced metrics in key areas.
On top of that, it is safe to assume that the NHL's most feared sniper is highly motivated to return to his Rocket-Richard form. The Maple Leafs' best player will also be driven to show any doubters that he is capable of performing at an elite level without Marner.
Matthews should be more comfortable in a leadership role entering his second season as the Leafs' captain. An additional motivating factor is the upcoming Winter Olympics. He and many other superstars from his generation will experience their first Olympic competition as NHL players after last season's 4 Nations teaser.
If Matthews needs more incentive to perform, there's this. In respected preseason player rankings, the Leafs' first-line center saw his placement drop. NHL Network ranked him fifteenth overall, while TSN's list shows him at number seven, a drop of four spots from this time a year ago.
An average NHL season over Matthews' first nine years is 52 goals and 43 assists for 95 points. Over the first half of the 2025-26 season, he should surpass Mats Sundin as the Maple Leafs' all-time leading goal scorer. Around mid-season, he should jump ahead of ex-teammate Marner and Borje Salming for fourth place on the team's all-time points list.
Marner's exit was the first significant change to the Leafs' core during the Matthews era. It's a symbolic shift that signals a new beginning. It offers a fresh start and reset for Matthews (and the team) as he embarks on the second half of his career.
A fifty-goal, hundred-point season is a reasonable floor for Matthews in 2025-26, with the potential for even greater heights with a return to his career norms for some important underlying statistics.
As the puck drops on a new season, all eyes will be on Matthews to see if he can return to his dominant, goal-scoring form. Not lacking for motivation, and with a return to health, the Maple Leafs and their fans should be galvanized by the possibilities of what their superstar can do.