Auston Matthews's 2024-25 season fell short of the lofty standards he's set. The Toronto Maple Leafs' star center was felled by an early-season injury that was serious enough to elicit a trip to Germany to manage it.
Managing the injury is the easiest explanation of why Matthews scored a career-low 33 goals last season. It was his lowest output since his rookie year when he scored 34.
For most NHL players, scoring thirty-plus goals is a special achievement. For Matthews, a two-time 60-goal scorer and three-time Rocket Richard winner, it marked a significant step back for a player widely considered hockey's best goal-scorer.
With an offseason of rest, renewed motivation, and a return to the mean for some important underlying statistics, all signs point to a major bounce-back season in 2025-2026.
There are plenty of reasons to believe Matthews is primed to remind everyone why he's the face of the Toronto Maple Leafs - and one of the most dangerous players in the NHL.
Return to health
Matthews chose to keep his injury status private, so an air of mystery surrounded what was bothering him through most of last year. Whatever the ailment, it was evident that Matthews was not himself.
At the end of the season's media availability, the Maple Leafs' center expressed his optimism about a return to health for the 2025-2026 season. Matthews stated surgery would not be required.
""I'm confident with some time off and just going through my own process and treatment and everything, I'm really confident I'll be back 100 percent next season and it's nothing for me to worry about.""Auston Matthews
A return to health for Matthews is the best possible news for the Leafs entering the 2025-2026 season. Over his first nine seasons, Matthews has the most goals of all NHL players.
If healthy, Matthews should be a fifty-goal, hundred-point player on top of bringing his usual solid defensive play. His wellness will be one of the most important narratives of the Maple Leafs' season.
Extra motivation for Matthews
There should be no shortage of motivation for Matthews next season. He'll want to return to his throne as the NHL's top scorer, determined to show the injury was the cause of his career-low goal production.
For the first time in his career, Matthews won't have his long-time right winger. Mitch Marner, headed to the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Leafs' sniper were together for nine years.
Matthews will be motivated to show any naysayers that he doesn't need the vision and playmaking of Marner to succeed. Also, incentivizing Matthews is his climb up the organization's all-time goals and points list.
He should surpass Mats Sundin as the franchise's leading goal-scorer during the first half of the year and, with Marner gone, Matthews should move into the team's top-five in all-time points.
A fresh start for him and the team is most inspiring for Matthews. Marner's exit is the first major roster change to the core during the Matthews era. It's a symbolic shift that signals a new beginning. It offers Matthews and the team a reset, especially in the postseason.
Matthews's underlying stats should return to normal
Many important underlying statistics were below Matthews' normal levels in 2024-2025. His injury was likely a major factor.
His shooting percentage in 2024-2025 was 12.6, the second lowest of his career, and well below his career average of 15.8. He averaged his lowest shots per game (3.9) since the 2018-2019 season.
Matthews's goals scored above expected were a career-worst minus-8. His percentage of unblocked shots that missed the net was a career-high 32.7.
Matthews didn't shoot as often, missed the net more than he ever has, and when he did hit the net, he scored less than he ever has.
All of these statistical anomalies are unlikely to happen again during a single season. Even returning to his career averages will result in a noteworthy uptick in Matthews's production.
Factored altogether, the Toronto Maple Leafs and their fans should expect to see a return to form for Auston Matthews during the 2025-2026 season.