The most recent back-to-back losses by the Toronto Maple Leafs have put the club in dire straits.
Yes, it’s early November. But the runway to actually salvage the team’s playoff hopes is getting shorter and shorter.
The Leafs are currently riding a three-game skid, putting them one point ahead of the Detroit Red Wings for last place in the Atlantic Division. That situation leaves Toronto 5-5-1 in their last 10 games, and they hardly look like a playoff team.
If we look at the last three games, they were a tough, hard-fought loss against the Utah Mammoth, a failed comeback against the Montreal Canadiens, and then a no-show on Sunday night against the New Jersey Devils. The Maple Leafs made life very easy for Connor Hellebuyck to get his first shutout as a member of the Devils.
That situation now puts Toronto two points out of a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, though they are tied with the Washington Capitals and trailing the Buffalo Sabres by one point.
So, the situation isn’t technically the end of the world. But if we go by the traditional American Thanksgiving rule, the Leafs don’t have much more room for error.
The unofficial Thanksgiving rule says that teams outside of a playoff spot at that point have about a 25% chance of making the postseason. While that’s hardly an iron law, it’s about as close as it gets to one.
The Leafs were just outside that threshold at that point last season. And while a brief December resurgence put Toronto back into a playoff spot, the club quickly sank after the New Year.
That’s why, unless the Leafs can put everything together soon, the chances of the club making the postseason look slim by the day.
Market pricing in Maple Leafs as long shots
The idea of the Maple Leafs being contenders at this point is pretty much laughable. The market is currently pricing in Toronto as Stanley Cup long shots, right in the middle of the pack. That’s not bad, but it’s not exactly what fans would like to see.
Sure, no one is giving way to any delusions of grandeur. We’re not trying to pretend that the Leafs are ready to unseat the Carolina Hurricanes or Colorado Avalanche as true Cup contenders. But at least fans want to see that there is some progress happening, and that’s just not something feasible at this point.
The goaltending has been relatively okay, the offense has had its moments, and the defense hasn’t been awful, but it just hasn’t come together at any single point. When all the dimensions have sort of synced simultaneously, the team has managed to show some semblance of being a playoff contender. However, those instances have been sporadic.
And because they’ve been few and far between, no one is really heading to NHL betting sites to drop a mortgage payment on the Maple Leafs making the playoffs, let alone winning one or two rounds.
But as bleak as things may seem right now, the team has the seeds of what could be a resurgence at one point or another.
It might just be a matter of time before Leafs put everything together
A legitimate consideration here is to believe that it’s just a matter of time before the Maple Leafs put everything together.
It’s worth pointing out that a great deal of the team turned over from last season. The GM, coaching staff, and about half of the roster are new. The club has also dealt with numerous injuries this season. That, plus some of the questionable moves (i.e., the tagging room fiasco), has put Toronto in a bit of a bind.
While some of those circumstances have been beyond the team’s control, others really haven’t.
And it’s the ones of the team’s own doing that end up stinging the most.
Be that as it may, the bottom line is that the on-ice product is the one that needs to rise to the occasion. And by the looks of things at this point, the Maple Leafs don’t really have the makings of a consistent team that could remain in the playoff race for the whole season.
Toronto looking at a tough climb
All told, the Maple Leafs are looking at a tough climb. The schedule won’t get any easier from here till the end of the season. Injuries will play a role in the team’s overall ability to remain consistent.
Even if injuries don’t become a significant factor, fatigue could play a key factor for a mostly veteran crew. That’s something that analytics sites like MoneyPuck are factoring in at the moment.
As it stands, MoneyPuck gives the Maple Leafs a 12.1% chance of making the postseason. Those probabilities won’t exactly make fans run to the best Stake promo code Canada and find the best possible deals to drop a mortgage payment on the club making the postseason.
That’s just making the playoffs. Winning one or two rounds seems even further out into the distance.
But there is one thing to consider in this entire conversation: Things can change quickly. We’ve seen other teams in the past, like the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, sputter for most of the season.
Then, they turn up the heat at the right time, get hot when it matters most, and ride into the postseason on a strong streak.
That may be the only real hope for Toronto. The plan, if there is even one, would be to hang in the playoff race for most of the season. Once the calendar begins to wind down, the Maple Leafs can turn it up and roll past the competition en route to a strong playoff run.
That situation may seem like wishful thinking at this point. There is no real indication that this inconsistent streak is somehow part of some master plan.
So, let’s see where the Leafs end up by the time American Thanksgiving rolls around. That’s about three weeks to determine whether Toronto has the bandwidth to really make a run for the postseason, or potentially spend next summer trying to figure out what to do about this season’s shortcomings.
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