A recent hot stretch has pulled the Toronto Maple Leafs back into the playoff picture, but the climb up the standings is far from complete.
If Toronto wants to turn momentum into a playoff spot, it must accomplish something it has struggled to do all season: defeat divisional opponents. It's the most direct path to securing a playoff position in a jam-packed Eastern Conference.
The Atlantic Division is the strongest group in the East, with multiple teams on hot streaks, and two of them currently holding down the wild-card positions. As part of their current five-game homestand, the Maple Leafs face two divisional opponents, starting with the Detroit Red Wings.
Leafs' Divisional Results Must Improve
The Red Wings have resided in the bottom half of the Atlantic Division for most of the past decade. In 2025-26, that has changed. For most of the season, Detroit has held a top-three spot, thanks in part to its results against Toronto.
Before this year, the Leafs had little difficulty against the Red Wings, but that trend was disrupted during a back-to-back series at the beginning of October. Detroit won both meetings, 6-3 at home, then 3-2 in Toronto.
Those games were a sign of things to come for both teams. Detroit used that early momentum as a springboard to consistently hold a postseason berth, while the Leafs have been below the playoff bubble all year.
The Red Wings were again victorious in the third meeting between the teams, winning 3-2 in overtime on December 28 in Detroit. That's a 6-1 edge in points for the Wings over the three games. That five-point head-to-head advantage is a big part of the Red Wings' eight-point lead over Toronto in the standings.
The Maple Leafs also faced the Buffalo Sabres as part of a back-to-back on October 24 and 25. Toronto lost the first game in Buffalo 5-3, followed by a 4-3 overtime loss the next night at home, giving the Sabres a 4-1 points advantage in the head-to-head games. Buffalo currently holds the last wild-card spot in the East, a point up on the Leafs.
Toronto's current record within the division is 6-6-2, behind the Tampa Bay Lightning (6-3-1), Detroit (9-4-2), Montreal (9-6-1), and Buffalo (8-3-2). In 2024-2025, the Maple Leafs won the Atlantic Division thanks to a 17-8-1 divisional record.
The Leafs are coming off a successful road trip, taking five of a possible eight points against opponents that included the league-best Colorado Avalanche and the Pacific-leading Vegas Golden Knights. Those two teams are part of a stiff challenge that awaits over the next four home games.
After a flat effort against the Minnesota Wild to start the homestand, the Maple Leafs next face the Red Wings, Golden Knights, Avalanche, and Sabres. Winning in regulation against Detroit and Buffalo is needed to help Toronto's quest for a playoff spot.
With just over thirty games left in the regular season, Leafs' coach Craig Berube and captain Auston Matthews need to highlight the urgency of the games within their division. It's the reason why they are currently on the outside looking in regarding the postseason.