Despite a strong 9-1-3 run over the past thirteen games, the Toronto Maple Leafs remain on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, a reflection of just how competitive the Atlantic Division has become.
Toronto's surge has brought them to the edge of a playoff spot, currently third in the wild-card race. Yet, the Leafs have been unable to gain much in the standings as several division rivals continue their own hot streaks, leaving the Maple Leafs with little help from the out-of-town scoreboard and a narrowing margin for error as the season progresses.
The Maple Leafs just finished an important road trip with a come-from-behind 4-3 overtime win over the Winnipeg Jets. That game bookended an identical 4-3 overtime victory over the league-leading Colorado Avalanche that started the trip on Monday.
The Leafs collected five of a possible eight points over the four road games, but it wasn't enough for them to jump into one of the wild-card positions or close the gap on the top three teams in the Atlantic.
Atlantic Division Proving to be NHL's Best
The Atlantic Division is proving to be the NHL's best. The teams within the Atlantic are starting to separate from their Metropolitan division counterparts.
Before Sunday's games, the second-place team in the Metropolitan Division was the New York Islanders, with a record of 26-17-5 for 57 points and a .594 points percentage. That point total would put them tied with the Buffalo Sabres for fifth in the Atlantic, but having played one extra game. Their points percentage also falls below that of four teams in the Atlantic Division.
Four of the bottom five teams in the conference standings come from the Metropolitan division. Currently, the Sabres and Boston Bruins, both members of the Atlantic, hold down the wild-card positions.
The Eastern Conference is congested, and things could easily change due to a hot or cold stretch. Recent results, though, suggest the Atlantic Division may produce both wild-card spots this season, making life more difficult for the Leafs.
The out-of-town scoreboard has recently not been kind to the Maple Leafs. While they won on Saturday, so too did the Montreal Canadiens, the Panthers, and the Bruins. The Sabres and Ottawa Senators each lost in overtime, earning a point.
Friday's results saw the Detroit Red Wings win in regulation, the Panthers lose, and the division-leading Tampa Bay Lightning earn a point in a shootout loss. On Thursday, while the Leafs blew four two-goal leads against former teammate Mitch Marner and the Vegas Golden Knights in an overtime loss, the Sabres and Bruins won their games, while Montreal lost.
On Wednesday, both the Senators and Sabres won their games. On Tuesday, while the Leafs lost to the Utah Mammoth, the Sens, Lightning, and Bruins all won. The Canadiens earned a point in an overtime loss to the Capitals. The Red Wings were the only other Atlantic team to lose in regulation that night.
Monday's results saw five Atlantic teams earn victories (the Leafs, Canadiens, Lightning, Red Wings, and Panthers). The Sabres were the only Atlantic team to lose, and it was to the Panthers.
The records over the last ten games for the teams in the Atlantic illustrate the challenge facing the Maple Leafs. While Toronto is 7-1-2 in its last ten, the division-leading Lightning are 9-0-1, second-place Detroit is 7-2-1, third-place Montreal is 6-3-1, the Bruins are 8-1-1, and the Sabres are 7-2-1.
Despite gathering sixteen of a possible twenty points (an .800 points-percentage), the Maple Leafs have lost ground to Tampa Bay and Boston and barely gained anything on Detroit, Buffalo, and Montreal.
The challenge ahead is clear for Craig Berube, Auston Matthews, and the rest of the Maple Leafs. Toronto's recent upswing has kept them in the conversation, but securing a playoff spot will require sustaining that torrid pace down the stretch, or finally seeing some relief as their sizzling division rivals cool off. Until then, the Leafs' path remains narrow in an Eastern Conference race that shows few signs of easing.