The news of Macklin Celebrini’s massive contract extension on Wednesday wasn’t much of a shock. The Leo Carlsson offer sheet pretty much raised the bar. So, everyone knew that Celebrini was going to come in at a similar price tag.
But beyond the sticker shock of seeing Celebrini sign for $18.8 million AAV, the contract now has some teams dreading their turn.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of them. In particular, the organization now knows how much it’s going to cost to keep Gavin McKenna. While the first-overall pick from the 2026 NHL Draft hasn’t even played a game in the Bigs, the Leafs have to be thinking about what’s going to happen in three years.
That’s when McKenna’s entry-level deal is up. And when it’s up, his price tag will be determined by what he does in his first three seasons.
Of course, it’s worth noting that the San Jose Sharks are paying up based on what Celebrini did in his sophomore season. He had 63 points in 70 games in his rookie season. And then, the 19-year-old exploded for a 115-point season this past campaign.
If McKenna gets reasonably close to those numbers, the Leafs will have to pay up. And they’ll have to pay up during the summer of 2028, lest they risk the prospect of the dreaded offer sheet.
Maple Leafs will need to save cap space for McKenna’s next contract
The big issue here is that the Maple Leafs will need to figure out enough space to keep McKenna. For now, John Chayka has to be thinking that it’s going to cost them around $15 million, at least, plus whatever Auston Matthews gets on his next deal, assuming he stays.
With that in mind, the increase in the cap ceiling and deals coming off the books (i.e., Max Domi, Dakota Joshua) should free up some space. But the key thing here will be that the Leafs cannot commit to any monster deals until they know what it’s going to cost them.
That situation could become clearer after this upcoming season. In the best of cases, McKenna will have a massive rookie year, and pretty much set the bar. If he produces anything close to what Celebrini has done, the Maple Leafs know they’ll have to pay McKenna the big bucks.
That’s all well and fine. The Leafs have the cash. The only matter will be the cap management situation.
So, don’t be surprised if there’s some radio silence moving forward on big acquisitions. The Maple Leafs can’t afford to put themselves in a position that could jeopardize re-signing McKenna.
After all, isn’t it surprising that everyone in Toronto is under contract for two more seasons? Numerous deals will expire in the summer of 2028, right around the time the Leafs will need to figure out how much it’s going to cost them to keep Matthews and McKenna.
But, no pressure on Chayka, right?
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