The Toronto Maple Leafs have a powerful reason to embrace the tank this season. While the win over the Vancouver Canucks in the shootout on Saturday night isn’t exactly part of the tank, Leafs fans shouldn’t be disappointed if the club gradually slides further down the standings.
The reason is a bit long-winded, so let’s go step-by-step.
Last season, the Maple Leafs traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Boston Bruins in the Brandon Carlo trade. However, one thing I hadn’t picked up on, which is until Elliotte Friedman brought it up during the January 31 edition of Saturday Headlines, is that said first-rounder is a top-five protected pick.
Sure enough, a cursory look in PuckPedia reveals that the first-rounder offered to Boston would become a 2027 first-rounder if the Leafs land the first-round pick in the top five for the 2026 NHL Draft.
To further compound the Bruins’ woes, if this year’s pick slides to 2027, it goes to the Philadelphia Flyers as part of the Scott Laughton trade. Thus, the Bruins would get the Maple Leafs’ 2028 first-round pick, unprotected.
We can worry about 2027 and 2028 when the time comes. But as far as 2026 is concerned, the Maple Leafs could have an incentive to finish as far down in the standings as possible. According to Tankathon, the Leafs would pick ninth if the draft were today.
In that event, the pick would go to the Boston Bruins. However, there’s a caveat here. That slot comes with a 5.1% chance of landing the first-overall pick via the NHL Draft Lottery. That’s something entirely possible after seeing the New York Islanders go from 10th to first in 2025.
The Maple Leafs don’t necessarily need the top-overall pick. They just need to land within the top five. In doing so, the Leafs not only keep their pick, but they also have an opportunity to draft a generational talent.
Considering the 2026 NHL Draft is supposed to be one of the deepest in years, it wouldn’t be a bad silver lining to see Toronto land a top-five pick. The Leafs could get an opportunity to draft a future number-one defenseman or a top-line forward.
If the Maple Leafs are serious about selling at this year’s trade deadline, the goal would be to rack up as many draft picks as possible. As it stands, the Leafs only have three in the later rounds. That’s why a couple of picks in the first few rounds wouldn’t be a bad way to salvage what has otherwise been a tough season.