Despite a disappointing 2025-26 NHL season, the Toronto Maple Leafs managed to finish fifth-last in the league as what was suppose to be a nice consolation prize. That is because by being the fifth-worst team in the NHL this past year, the Maple Leafs would get to keep their 2026 first-round pick that would have been sent to the Boston Bruins as part of the trade for Brandon Carlo since it was top-five protected.
Many believed that the Leafs could breathe a huge sigh of relief as all was not lost after a rough 2025-26 campaign. However, what most may have forgotten about was the existence of the NHL Draft lottery. Because of the stipulation for any trades that were made included the outcomes of the lottery, the Maple Leafs aren’t exactly out of the woods just yet as they will need some luck fall their way to not end up losing the pick again.
This NHL Draft lottery will mean a lot for the Maple Leafs
Unfortunately, Toronto actually have some worrisome odds entering the NHL Draft lottery, as the results will be revealed on Tuesday night. So how does the big odds picture look for the Maple Leafs?
The Leafs have an 8.5% chance of landing the first overall pick, an 8.6% of landing the second overall pick, a 0.3% of taking the third overall pick, and a 24.5% of staying in the fifth overall pick slot. As such, Toronto have a 41.9% chance of staying put or moving to pick higher up.
So believe it or not, the Maple Leafs actually have a 58.1% chance of falling down from their fifth overall pick slot, which would mean their first-round pick for the upcoming draft would go to the Bruins. That’s right, by finishing fifth-last in the league, the Leafs still have a higher chance of losing their pick than retaining it, which should make it a nerve-wracking night for Toronto fans on Tuesday when they ultimately learn their fate.
Being able to stay at number five would be a blessing, and any move upwards would definitely be a nice bonus for the Maple Leafs, as it would likely guarantee them a player that could be a difference maker as quick as next season. But if Toronto gets “Leafed” again, they would painfully see their pick transferred to their arch rivals Bruins and suddenly have a longer road ahead of them in their retool or rebuild. If that indeed comes to fruition, the Leafs could then enter the territory once again in pulling off one of their worst trades in franchise history.
As a result, Maple Leafs fans better hope that the hockey gods are finally on their side this time around so that Leafs nation can all celebrate after the reveal on Tuesday. After all, the fate of their immediate future could all come down to this one night.
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