News of a reported $150 million salary cap ceiling for the 2029-30 season broke on Thursday. And it’s the type of news that teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs will absolutely love.
In a column on Sportsnet, insider Frank Servalli asserted that the league could be blowing past the $127.5 million cap ceiling due in a couple of seasons, jumping all the way to $150 million.
That’s the sort of number the Maple Leafs will need to keep their budding core intact. Let’s start with the most evident situation.
Auston Matthews will need a new contract for the 2028-29 season. If the Leafs and Matthews were to take things upwards of $18 million per season, the cap increase for that season should be enough to offset the just from Matthews’ current $13.25 million cap hit.
Secondly, there’s Easton Cowan. The Cowboy will also need a new contract in 2028-29. And with the way he’s played this season, the Maple Leafs will have to pony up to keep him (pun intended).
It’s unclear how much Cowan’s cap hit will jump. Since he’ll be coming out of his entry-level deal, there’s no question it’s going to be a massive jump. Perhaps a two-year bridge deal might be the solution, punting the situation until the cap rises in 2029-30.
Then, there’s Gavin McKenna. The first-overall pick’s entry-level deal will be up in 2028-29, and he’ll need a new deal precisely for the 2029-39 season. With the way McKenna is progressing, he’ll be the real deal by then.
Could that mean McKenna might be in the conversation for Macklin Celebrini-type money? It’s a possibility.
Maple Leafs will need as much cap space to keep competitive team
The Maple Leafs could be looking at a type of Core Four salary structure in the coming seasons. Matthews, assuming he stays, will have a substantial cap hit, especially with his resurgent season this year.
Cowan could be in double digits. McKenna could knock one out of the park. Kirill Marchenko will be at $12.5 million. William Nylander will still be at $11.5 million until 2031. That situation means that a return to a top-heavy salary structure could be the case for Toronto.
Now, the money is not the problem. The Leafs have deep pockets. If they could spend up to $300 million, they would. The problem has been the shackles imposed by the salary cap ceiling.
And with those shackles getting a bit looser, the Leafs may see a minor pinch in the 2028-29 season, before the floodgates opening the following season.
If there is a time for John Chayka to be forward-thinking, it’s now. Chayka has to think that if this increase is true, he won’t face the need for penny-pinching as he builds the team’s roster for the foreseeable future.
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