The Toronto Maple Leafs cracked the top ten in The Athletic’s opening round of NHL rankings. The Leafs clocked into the seventh spot with an estimated 101.7 points on the season. That puts the Buds a smidge above the defending Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets and about two points under the Dallas Stars for sixth spot.
The placement is mildly surprising as The Athletic has picked the Leafs to finish second in the Atlantic Division behind the Tampa Bay Lightning. The surprise isn’t so much in the second-place finish, but in picking the Lightning to pace the Atlantic.
Be that as it may, the biggest issue holding the Maple Leafs back in The Athletic’s estimation is the loss of Mitch Marner. This narrative has been the subject of scrutiny throughout the offseason. But as the analysts at The Athletic point out, Marner is just one player. Sure, he tacked on 100 points during the regular season last year.
Then again, the Maple Leafs’ season will boil down to getting into the playoffs and advancing once in. That’s it. Whether the Leafs win the division or just skate into the playoffs is rather inconsequential. The goal is a deep playoff run.
Maple Leafs' biggest question is moving on from Marner
Once again, the entire discussion revolving around Marner’s absence is overblown. Yes, the club will need to replace his production. But it’s better to have replaced Marner with a crop of players instead of just one. In doing so, the Maple Leafs hedged their bets. If one player, such as Matias Maccelli, falters, others could pick up the slack. It would take a catastrophic collapse from various players in the lineup for the strategy to completely fail.
The bet lies in players like Maccelli, Max Domi, Nic Roy, Dakota Joshua, and even Easton Cowan picking up some of the points Marner left behind. If they can spread the love around the lineup, there’s a pretty good chance the Leafs won’t struggle to score goals.
Plus, a healthy Auston Matthews, with William Nylander and John Tavares behind him, could be enough to get consistent scoring. Another 40 goals from Nylander and a 30-plus-goal season from Tavares, even in his mid-30s, is just what Matthews needs to excel.
Of course, the bulk of the offense will fall on Matthews. Perhaps another 60-goal season may not be in the cards, but if he can at least get back to the 40-plus range, that’s something that will go a long way for the Maple Leafs.
Goaltending and defense are strength and weakness
The Athletic pointed out how Anthony Stolarz will be crucial in keeping the Maple Leafs afloat. That’s something hard to argue against. The departure of Joseph Woll left Stolarz as the undisputed starter in Toronto.
The battle to back him up, that is, Denni Hildeby or James Reimer, will determine how much Stolarz plays. The plan could be for the Leafs to roll with three goalies, with one rotating from the Marlies to the big club.
That aside, Stolarz has been solid the last two seasons. Hopefully, that trend will continue in 2025-26. If so, the Maple Leafs’ biggest strength and simultaneously biggest weakness will be the defense.
The spotlight should hit Morgan Rielly. Since notching 70 points a few seasons ago, Rielly has seemed stuck in neutral. With a full season of Brandon Carlo alongside him and more power play time, perhaps Rielly’s numbers could rebound.
Also, the Leafs will be banking on another healthy year from aging veterans Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe. That situation leaves the third pairing as a bit of a toss-up- Simon Benoit and Oliver Ekman-Larsson must do their best to hold their heads above water.
All told, if the entire contraption holds, the Leafs could cruise to a division win. But if things falter, fans could see the Maple Leafs struggle to make the postseason. That could mean landing in a wild card spot with a less-than-favorable matchup.
But then again, the Leafs have had “favorable” playoff matchups in the past and still failed to deliver. So, it’s anyone’s guess what could happen for the Leafs until they actually make it to the postseason.