Talk of buying out Morgan Rielly has come up in Toronto Maple Leafs discussions. The rationale behind such a move seems predicated on his ineffectiveness to truly become the team’s top blueliner.
While there’s certainly validity in Rielly’s apparent lack of top-pairing performance, buying him out would be a massive mistake. The math doesn’t work in the Maple Leafs’ favor.
According to PuckPedia’s calculations, the Leafs would have dead cap space for the next eight years. That’s a heck of a long time to have cap space allocated to paying a player to go away.
If the Maple Leafs bought out Rielly ahead of the 2026-26 season, the instant cap savings would be $4 million for the next four seasons. That’s not bad, but it’s not good, either.
Sure, wiping off $4 million off the Leafs’ books would help now. But the fact is that the club would be on the hook until 20234.
If the Leafs just ran out the clock on Rielly’s contract, they’d be on the hook until 2030. Yes, the $7.5 million cap hit looms large, especially for a blueliner who might be a middle-pairing option at best.
But dead cap space is something that every NHL team comes to regret at some point. Now, you might argue that the rising cap would water down the dead cap space. While that’s a valid point, teams up against the cap need every dollar they can spare.
That’s why dead cap space is the last thing the Leafs will want on their books. But if there is no other route, buying out Rielly might be the only path forward.
A trade is best path forward for Maple Leafs
If the Maple Leafs were truly adamant about ridding themselves of Morgan Rielly, trading him would be the best path forward. That situation would clear all contractual obligations from the books. Most importantly, it would preclude any dead cap space moving forward.
Now, it’s worth pointing out that a trade is easier said than done. But having the entire offseason to get a deal done would be a viable alternative.
The Leafs may have to sell Rielly for pennies on the dollar. But the largest benefit is getting his cap hit and roster spot free. The full $7.5 million cap hit can be allocated towards other areas. Moreover, the Leafs wouldn’t be on the hook till 2030 or even 2034.
As for the likelihood of a trade, that’s another story entirely. The Leafs would have a similar situation to the one the New Jersey Devils are going through with Dougie Hamilton.
But that doesn’t mean a deal is impossible. The Maple Leafs may have to sell at a loss. Unfortunately, that’s a reality of business. It seems quite low that the Leafs would go that route. It wouldn’t be surprising, nevertheless, to hear about the club discussion of a potential trade with Rielly’s camp during the offseason.
 Â