One of the prevailing talking points of the Toronto Maple Leafs' offseason is the potential dismissal of Craig Berube.
It would seem reasonable to make a coaching change now. After all, making the switch at this point would allow the entire organization to start off with a clean slate. A new President, GM, and coach would be as close to a rebuild as it gets without gutting the roster.
That said, there’s a powerful reason why the Maple Leafs could hold on to Berube. And it’s not because they love him so much. That reason is rooted in pragmatism.
Keeping Berube on board gives the organization a scapegoat to sacrifice to fans and the media next season. If the Leafs' season gets off to a terrible start, the organization can point to Berube as the problem. The next step would be to fire him. Even after his dismissal, if the season goes sideways, the Leafs can always say it was Berube’s fault.
Moving forward, the organization can take the roster to the studs and say it’s necessary to fulfill the next coach’s vision.
Such a posture may sound Machiavellian. But bear in mind that these are the Maple Leafs we’re talking about. They are about as business-oriented as they get in the NHL. So, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Berube starting off the season on borrowed time.
What if Berube leads a turnaround for the Maple Leafs?
So, what if the opposite happens? What if Berube and the Maple Leafs get off to a roaring start and return to the postseason?
Well, the next President and GM can take all the credit. It wouldn’t be hard to envision John Chayka or Mats Sundin turning around and saying, “See, we were right. We believed in this guy, and he didn’t let us down.”
Maple Leafs management can gloat about making all the right moves and how this season was just an aberration.
Sure, management can say the same thing if a new coach turns things around. But they can’t blame anyone if things still go sideways with a new coach. Look at what happened to the New York Rangers this season. They brought in Mike Sullivan, and things got even worse. They can’t blame anyone; not Sullivan, not the players, not the ice, not even the mascot. The entire responsibility falls on management.
That’s a cautionary tale the Maple Leafs will likely have at the front of their minds moving forward. They need cover. Keeping Berube provides that cover. Of course, I could be wrong. And I’ve been wrong many times. But it’s not tough to see where this situation is going.
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