The Toronto Maple Leafs will face a strong challenge from two formidable Florida-based teams. The Florida Panthers, of course, will be the team to beat in the Atlantic Division. But the other Florida team, a past back-to-back Stanley Cup champion club, could be the toughest opponent the Leafs could face in 2025-26.
The Lightning still have one of the best cores in the NHL. Nikita Kucherov is one of the best scorers in the NHL, arguably the best. His back-to-back Art Ross Trophies have been impressive.
There’s also Victor Hedman. He’s regarded among the best blueliners in the league. A former Norris Trophy winner, his elite-level performance remains high among the league’s defensemen.
The Lightning’s equally elite supporting cast, consisting of Brandon Hagel, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Jake Guentzel, and Ryan McDonagh, all have the talent to pace the Atlantic Division.
In the crease, Andrei Vasilevskiy, once considered the best goalie in the NHL, can still be among the best when he’s on his game.
The biggest difference this season for the Lightning will be their improved depth. Full seasons from Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand should help with middle-six scoring and overall forward depth.
That situation has prompted The Athletic to pick the Lightning to finish second overall in the league with a projected 107.3 points. That’s two full points ahead of the third-place club, the Colorado Avalanche, and nearly two points behind the top team, the Edmonton Oilers.
That projection depends on everything going well for the Lightning. That situation means getting consistent scoring from Kucherov, Point, and Guentzel. It also depends on Hedman staying at an elite level, with Vasilevskiy proving no health issues linger.
Those are big ifs, taking into account one crucial reality.
Lightning aging core might not have enough left in the tank
Since their third straight Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2022, the Lightning have remained a playoff team, but no longer the fearsome Cup contender they once were.
The Bolts have continued to make the playoffs, but have been consistently bounced in the first round of the playoffs. The Leafs bounced the Lightning in 2023, followed by the Panthers in consecutive seasons.
In fact, the Lightning struggled early in the regular season last year, but managed to turn it up in the second half. That push enabled them to finish third in the division and face the Panthers in the opening round.
This season, that elite core is one year older. More miles have been racked up on the odometer, with few young players hitting the lineup. Sure, the Lightning will be tough to beat. But then again, Kucherov is 32, Point 29, Guentzel 30, Gourde 33, Hedman 34, McDonagh 36, and Vasilevskiy 31.
So, it’ll be up to younger players like Brandon Hagel, 27, Conor Geekie, 21, and Erik Cernak, 28, to support the Lightning’s vets on the path to a strong regular season.
Ultimately, counting the Bolts out would be a fool’s errand. The club will be tough to beat. But they may run out of steam as the season progresses. The Olympic break should help the club replenish, but with several key players heading to the Olympics in Milano-Cortina, who knows how beneficial the break could be.
Maple Leafs should brace for yet another first-round matchup with the Lightning. Unless the Leafs win the division again, the likeliest outcome could be the Leafs and Lightning finishing second and third in the Atlantic.