The Toronto Maple Leafs have made the playoffs for nine consecutive seasons. Despite the failures that each of those nine years have had, that is still an impressive feat. It has now led us to assuming that this team will make the postseason as long as Auston Matthews and William Nylander are on this team.
But are we sure about that?
The Maple Leafs aren't the only team that haven't done anything in these very early days of the offseason, so we can't overtly criticize their inactivity, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be concerned. Mitch Marner is all but gone, he will be wearing a new jersey when he plays his next hockey game. John Tavares has not signed a new deal and if Toronto keeps low-balling him, he might just go sign with a different team; he is one of the best centers available in free agency, after all.
With those two players leaving, the Leafs' ceiling significantly drops. The ability to score on multiple lines decreases and obviously, they are an overall worse team. We're really making some strong hockey analysis -- a team loses two of its best players and they're not as good as they were before. Real hard-hitting stuff.
While the Leafs could live without those two players, all that matters is what they do next and the issue with that is what is actually available to them.
This free agency class is weak. Sam Bennett is projected to stay in Florida, and so is Brad Marchand. That's two of the actual impact additions they could make, not available. And now, we're looking at players like an old, one-way Mikael Granlund, a transition winger in Nikolaj Ehlers, and a Brock Boeser looking to rehab his reputation; as the best available forwards in free agency. Those are all good players but not even close to replacing either of the free agents that could walk away from Toronto.
If Granlund replaces Tavares as the Leafs' second-line center, and even if they sign a very good winger in Ehlers to replace Marner's spot in the top six, there is no guarantee that is a playoff team. Max Domi would still be heavily relied upon to score, and then we're looking at a third line featuring Scott Laughton, Calle Jarnkrok, and Bobby McMann, potentially. That's not really a depth scoring line that spells out Stanley Cup contention.
What about a trade, though?
Do the Leafs have anything to actually give up? They don't have a first-round pick until 2028 and the only value in the prospect pipeline is with players like Easton Cowan, who they need more for long-term success more than to cash in for a win-now trade.
The Leafs are extremely limited in the avenues they can take to improve their roster after two of their best players potentially leave in free agency. That is what is terrifying and what might mean missing the playoffs, especially since every team in the Atlantic Division is trying to get better and expectations are setting in.
Toronto has to be careful and not think that they are safe no matter what.