John Chayka has a goaltending problem, and it isn't the one most fans think.
Given his recent struggles between the pipes, the easy narrative is that Sergei Bobrovsky is the biggest problem that the Toronto Maple Leafs have between the pipes. Truth be told, the real story is more complicated. Toronto has three goalies, three question marks, and one trade chip it can't afford to cash. Every piece of this puzzle is connected, and right now, none of them fit.
On paper, given the struggles that Stolarz and Joseph Woll had staying healthy the past two seasons, the summer moves made sense. Chayka traded Woll and Dennis Hildeby, signed Bobrovsky to a three-year deal, and handed the Toronto Marlies' (The Maple Leafs AHL affiliate) crease to Artur Akhtyamov, the reigning Calder Cup playoff MVP.
With his goaltending makeover complete, Chayka set in motion what should have led to the ideal version of this season. Let me paint the picture: in a perfect world, Bobrovsky settles in as the starter. Akhtyamov dominates in the AHL and proves he's ready. That gives Chayka the green light to move Anthony Stolarz, who's playing well in relief of Bobrovsky and carries an affordable $3.75 million cap hit through 2029-30, for something this team badly needs: a depth defenseman.
One month in, that plan hasn't materialized, putting Chayka's potential trade to acquire a depth defenseman on hold. The numbers tell the story. Overall, it isn't pretty.
Goaltending is a problem for the Leafs so far this season
Stolarz has a 4-1-0 record with a respectable 2.79 goals against average and a .907 save percentage. Bobrovsky has a 3-5-2 record with a 3.29 GAA and .885 SV%. Meanwhile, Akhtyamov has a 2-2-1 record to go along with a 2.97 GAA and .873 SV% down in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies.
Of course, we need some context before we judge those numbers. Let’s acknowledge that save percentages are down across the league. Last season, the NHL average finished below .900 for the first time in 30 years, and this season it's sitting around .892. With that in mind, we can confidently say that a .900 save percentage is kind of the new “average”, with a .915 save percentage and above likely emerging as a bit of a unicorn these days.
Bobrovsky arrived in Toronto coming off a career-worst .877 save percentage in Florida, and to date, he hasn't shaken it. There’s no easy way to say it, Bobrovsky’s numbers are a bit alarming. Many have pointed out that he is a notoriously slow starter, but that’s not going to cut it for Leafs Nation. Nobody cares that he is 38, nobody cares that he’s playing behind a defense that gives up an enormous number of high-danger chances and is prone to giveaways, nobody wants to hear the word “patience”, Leafs Nation wants results and they want them now!
Down at the AHL level, Akhtyamov hasn't carried his Calder Cup magic into this season. Among 25 AHL goalies with at least five games, he is currently ranked 23rd in save percentage (.873) and has looked shaky at times. To be fair, the Leafs organization hasn't helped him. A recall to back up looks to have thrown him off his rhythm, and he made just two starts between Oct. 3 and Oct. 24. The Marlies have also scored three goals combined in his three losses, which is not going to help many goalies earn the “W”.
While Stolarz has clearly been the better of the two netminders with the big club, he hasn't been perfect either. He got lit up in Utah, stopping 23 of 28 in a 5-4 loss. But since then, he's been the steadiest of the three. In a crease full of question marks, he's the closest thing Toronto has to an answer.
Here's the problem in a nutshell: He's injury prone, which limits the confidence the organization has in him. We have already watched back-to-back seasons in which Stolarz missed significant games due to injury, which seems to be top of mind within the organization.
Looking back, injuries limited him to 60 games over the past two seasons, and a lower-body injury last April is what opened the door for Akhtyamov's first NHL start. There are also questions about his ability to handle back-to-backs. This lowers his value to buyers, and it means Toronto can't simply hand him the crease if Bobrovsky keeps slipping. Bottom line, leaning on Stolarz is just too risky, plain and simple.
Is there a trade to fix the goaltending?
One thing Stolarz has? Real value. He's 32, owns a career .913 save percentage, and his cap hit is manageable. Don't forget, he was Bobrovsky's backup during Florida's 2023-24 Cup run and finished fifth in Vezina voting two seasons ago. Goalie-needy teams will take note of that resume. Maybe there are two truths here- He’s Toronto's most tradeable goalie, and with both Bobrovsky and Akhtyamov struggling, he's also the one Toronto can least afford to lose or trade for that matter.
If Toronto was to move him today, what's left? An aging starter fighting the puck and a prospect who can't find his game in the AHL. That isn't a tandem. That's a massive gamble that likely ends in missing the playoffs by a longshot.
If this were only a short-term problem, Chayka could wait it out. Trouble is, the problem is likely a long-term issue.
A decision needs to be made for Akhtyamov
Akhtyamov is waiver-exempt for the rest of this season. That said, next fall, that exemption expires, and his three-year extension flips from a two-way deal to a one-way deal at $900,000. From that point on, sending him to the Marlies means exposing him to waivers. A 25-year-old Calder Cup MVP on a cheap one-way deal? No question in my mind that there is a team out there that claims him, stat!
That leaves Toronto heading into 2027-28 with three goalies on one-way contracts: Bobrovsky, Stolarz, and Akhtyamov. Which leads us to an uncomfortable conclusion: something has to give and the choices are not ideal. Chayka can trade Stolarz, carry three goalies and burn a roster spot, trade Akhtyamov, or risk losing him for nothing.
To make that call with any confidence, the Leafs need to know whether Akhtyamov is an NHL goalie. They have one season to find out, and so far he's had very few AHL starts and is yet to see NHL action.
In my last column, I wrote that benching Bobrovsky is not the answer. From my point of view, the best bet, at least for now, is a straight rotation of Bobrovsky and Stolarz. Bobrovsky starts, Stolarz gets the next one, Bobrovsky starts, Stolarz gets the next one, and so on.
Bobrovsky and Stolarz just need to play better as soon as possible
Bottom line, both goalies need the work, and the Leafs badly need the points. A rotation also protects Stolarz from injury, as we all know he has struggled to stay healthy, from carrying too heavy a load. If one goalie falters badly or gets on a real heater, Hiller can adjust. Until then, split it down the middle and let your netminders find their groove.
Make no mistake about it, the urgency is real. By my estimate, Toronto needs to win 11 of every 20 games to earn a playoff spot. Factor in overtime losses, and that puts them at roughly 94 to 96 points. With the Buds having earned just seven wins in 15 games the team is behind pace. As such, there's no room for a goalie to play his way out of a slump on Toronto's dime. They need results, and quickly!
The counterargument? Bobrovsky is a slow starter who needs rhythm, and a strict rotation could delay his turnaround. Fair point. But the Leafs can't afford to wait and find out. They need to stop the bleeding, there is simply no time to waste.
The Leafs need a defenseman. The obvious chip to get one is Stolarz. But Stolarz is the only goalie in the organization giving Toronto steady play right now, at any level. Move him and you weaken the most important position on the ice. Keep him and the waiver clock keeps ticking on Akhtyamov.
For Chayka to get unstuck, two things have to happen. Bobrovsky has to look like a starter again, and Akhtyamov has to look like the goalie who carried the Marlies to a Calder Cup title. Until both happen, the GM is handcuffed, short term and long term.
So, here's the question: if you're Chayka, do you hold Stolarz and protect this season, or start Akhtyamov more now and force the issue before it forces you?
Time will tell how it all shakes out…
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