Looking back at Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nick Robertson, he had certainly endured a long and cumbersome journey before finally making it to big show.
After making a strong first impression by scoring his first ever NHL goal during the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Robertson had to fight through injuries and ineffectiveness during the next few seasons before finally sticking with the team last year.
In doing so, he broke through with a 14-goal, 13-assist campaign in 56 games played in 2023-24 as he looked to build upon that success this upcoming season.
However, after a strong and convincing training camp in which Robertson led the Leafs with five preseason goals, he has been unable to score in the 19 regular season games that he has suited up this season. Which begs the question, is his time with the Maple Leafs beginning to run out?
Is time running out for Nick Robertson and the Toronto Maple Leafs?
Digging a little deeper at the numbers, Robertson produced at a point in about every two games and a goal in every four games last season. This year, he has only one goal to show for and as many points despite averaging more ice time in 19 regular season games to date.
In 2023-24, Robertson was at least a dangerous offensive threat, averaging about 1.7 shots a game and connected at a 14.6% shooting percentage. This season, he has averaged roughly the same - posting 1.5 shots a game but has a brutal 3.4% shooting percentage.
Robertson is 6th on the Leafs in shots-per-minute of ice-time, ahead of Marner and Knies. Of the Leafs who have played 200 minutes this year at 5v5, he is third in shot-attempts per minute. He gets more individual high-danger chances per minute than Mitch Marner. So it's true that he's creating offense, but he just can't score - he is hitting posts, getting robbed, and shooting wide, but he isn't scoring.
Robertson been also extemely unlucky but nevertheless, the production will eventually need to be there.
But looking at some advanced stats, Robertson’s expected goals rate is only at 47%, his scoring chances rate at 49% and his high danger chances rate at only 45% in 5-on-5 situations this season. This is not great, but keep in mind, he's playing on the third line and not getting minutes with the Leafs stars.
His most frequent linemates happen to be an equally struggling Pontus Holmberg and from the back end Simon Benoit and Connor Timmins, it could be quite hard for Robertson to generate anything offensively as a result. In fact, his rate of shots and scoring chances per minute is quite impressive considering.
Perhaps what Robertson deserves is a run in the top-six with John Tavares, as his two most productive games this season came when Tavares was centering his line. For a pure shooter like Robertson that mainly excels with offense, he should be deployed in a way that would capitalize on that strength. Just think how well Brett Hull or even Alex Ovechkin would have done if they found themselves on the bottom-six with mainly defensive linemates . (All stats from NHL.com and naturalstattrick.com)
Therefore, if inserting Robertson higher up in the lineup doesn’t end up leading to any more improvement than what he has been putting up already, Toronto will need to seriously consider whether a change of scenery would work best in the long run for both Robertson and the Leafs going forward. But the most Important thing now is to make sure he is legitimately given that one last shot.