The Toronto Maple Leafs are the only NHL team scheduled to have an arbitration case with a restricted free agent. The team and winger Nick Robertson are set to go to arbitration on Sunday.
Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported Friday that both the team and the player have set their numbers for the case. Robertson is seeking $2.25 million on a one-year deal from the neutral third-party arbitrator, while the Maple Leafs countered with $1.2 million.
Sunday's ruling, barring a last-minute miracle agreement, will provide some clarity on the future of Robertson. Once viewed as a promising piece of the team's long-term plans, the organization and Robertson have mostly had a contentious relationship. Being the league's only arbitration case adds further strain to the partnership.
As both sides attempt to move past the hearing and refocus ahead of training camp, the challenge lies in whether trust can be rebuilt-or if this marks a final rift that can't be repaired.
Robertson and Leafs Have Never Aligned
Robertson was a second-round pick, 53rd overall, of the Leafs in 2019. That year, the Maple Leafs did not have a first-round draft pick.
Injuries derailed his development over the first few years of his career. Shoulder, leg, and groin ailments, plus a concussion, have all been part of his setbacks. He has overcome these past issues to be relatively healthy over the last two seasons.
His problem has been finding a definitive role in the lineup. Robertson is a skilled player who has been unable to secure a spot within the Leafs' top two lines due to the team's depth at forward.
Over the last two years under general manager Brad Treliving, Robertson has been miscast as a third or fourth-line player. Being a smaller, fleet-footed, skilled player, he is ill-suited for a heavy-checking defense-first role.
In 2024-2025, during coach Craig Berube's first season behind the Leafs' bench, the winger scored a career-high 15 goals in sixty-nine games, after scoring 14 goals in fifty-six games during the 2023-2024 season.
Robertson also had a penchant for immediately scoring in games after returning to the lineup following being a healthy scratch. Despite the production, twenty-six of those twenty-nine goals were at even-strength, Robertson has not been a regular in the lineup, especially during the playoffs. He only played nine games over the last two postseasons.
Remember, too, that Robertson requested a trade from the Maple Leafs just a year ago during the summer of 2024 in hopes of a better opportunity elsewhere. Without any leverage, he rescinded the request and didn't cause any problems during the 2024-2025 season.
Arbitration cases are a hard thing for a professional athlete to endure. The employee learns that their employer doesn't value them as much as they think they are worth, and hears the reasons why during the hearing.
The Maple Leafs' value for Robertson is just barely half of what he considers his worth to be. Additionally, the team has never put him in a position to succeed, or perhaps excel, with similarly skilled players.
With Mitch Marner gone and a top-six spot available for the taking, the 2025-2026 season is Robertson's best chance to play a larger role. To earn a higher place in the lineup, he must set aside the ugliness of his arbitration case.
The Leafs hope the arbitrator settles on their number so they are not pressed further against the salary cap. They'd reap the benefit of a potential twenty-goal scorer, top-six forward candidate for a paltry one million plus cap hit. The cost to them is potentially alienating the player and any chance at a long-term partnership.
Sunday's decision will provide more transparency for the Maple Leafs and Robertson, but the defeated side will be left to wonder if they want to continue this vexed relationship.