There is just one arbitration case left this NHL offseason and it’s Toronto Maple Leafs winger Nick Robertson.
Robertson is headed into arbitration with the team on August 3, a key moment in the 23-year-old's career and a potential turning point for the Leafs’ roster decisions.
Coming off a career-best campaign with 15 goals and 22 points over 69 regular season games, Robertson showed flashes of his scoring upside. However, his inconsistent usage and absence during most of the playoffs left lingering questions about how the team views his role going forward.
Toronto elected arbitration, meaning the result will be a one-year contract determined by a neutral third party if no agreement is reached beforehand. Analysts estimate the awarded salary could range between $1.5 million and $2.2 million AAV, depending on how both sides present his value.
With the Leafs operating under a tight salary cap – less than $3 million available – negotiations are complex. The team is expected to advocate for a modest deal, pointing to Robertson’s limited playoff involvement and developmental inconsistencies. On the other hand, Robertson’s camp will highlight his youth, scoring potential, and contributions in a depth role.
Even if the two sides agree to a short-term deal beforehand or it goes all the way through the arbitration process, it doesn’t mean that Robertson would be in the opening night lineup.
Once under contract, Robertson becomes much more tradeable, since any acquiring team would know what the player would know the term and dollars committed to the player.
There is still a sense of untapped potential with Robertson, that could keep the Leafs interested in seeing what he could do with more of an opportunity in the top six with much better linemates than he has historically had in Toronto. But, they could also just be done with trying to squeeze more production from a smaller winger that doesn’t really jive with head coach Craig Berube’s philosophy.
It certainly feels like even with arbitration, this isn’t the end of Robertson transactions.