Analysts expect Auston Matthews to score more next season — but how much?

So much has been said about Auston Matthews' dramatic decline in goal-scoring over the last couple of seasons. The explanation seems to lie with Craig Berube. His defensive ways zapped Matthews of his most dangerous weapons.

Of course, missing a good chunk of last season to injury didn’t help matters, either.

But there’s a very good chance that this upcoming season, Matthews will return to his usual high-end goal-scoring form.

During an appearance on NHL Tonight, former player Mike Rupp stated that he believes Matthews should easily top 40 goals in 2026-27.

“I think this is an automatic over just because he was always been… a big year… that you expect from Auston Matthews. The next year will have a big year.”

Rupp went on to hone in on the fact that the renewed optimism in Toronto could lead Matthews back to a lofty goal total.

And Rupp is not wrong. The fact that there has been a renovation of sorts in Toronto makes it plausible for Matthews to become reinvigorated. The arrival of Gavin McKenna, plus the additions to the team, including longtime buddy Jack Roslovic, could just be the shot in the arm that Matthews needs to get back on track.

Matthews should see improvement under Jim Hiller

One of the things that significantly hampered Auston Matthews’ goal-scoring totals last season was his mostly defensive use by Berube.

Now, Berube does deserve some credit in sort of forcing Matthews to become a highly underrated two-way center. The Maple Leafs captain is much better defensively than most fans realize.

But that evolution has come at the expense of his goal-scoring. MoneyPuck shows that last season, Matthews started just 19.2% of his shifts in the offensive zone, with 17% in the neutral zone and 13.5% in the defensive zone.

Comparatively, William Nylander started 21.5% of his shifts in the offensive zone, with just 8.3% in his own zone.

John Tavares, the Maple Leafs' best faceoff man, got over 20% of his starts in the offensive zone, compared to just 11% in the defensive zone.

Those numbers raise a question about Matthews’ role on the team. And if Jim Hiller realizes this situation, we could see less of Matthews starting in the defensive zone and more in the attacking area.

If that’s the case, Matthews’ goal totals could increase substantially.

It’s also worth noting that Matthews’ shots on goal per game were well below his career average. Including the last couple of down seasons, Matthews averages just slightly above 4.0 shots per game.

Last season, Matthews was below that mark at 3.8. If we remove the last two seasons under Berube, Matthews averaged over 4.04 shots per game.

That may not seem like a lot. But when you look at the total numbers, you can see why Matthews scored much more in the past. During his 69-goal campaign in 2023-24, Matthews notched a career-high 369 shots on goal. That number dropped to 261 and then 227 last season.

So, the answer to seeing Matthews’ goal totals rise could be simple: Just shoot the puck more. And he can do that by getting more shot attempts. In 2023-24, Matthews attempted 694 shots. Those attempts plummeted to 480 and then 402.

Let’s see how long it takes Jim Hiller to figure this out. The sooner he does, the better off the Maple Leafs and Matthews will be in the long run.

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