Toronto Maple Leafs: John Tavares Self-Sustenance Key to Success

For better or worse, the Toronto Maple Leafs have hinged their success to the wagon carrying a few key players. Such is life in the salary cap world of the National Hockey League.

Former first-round picks Morgan Rielly, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Auston Matthews will ultimately determine what the Toronto Maple Leafs achieve.

That and goaltending.

As another season approaches and the Leafs try to rid themselves of playoff nightmares, the production of the four players above is predictable.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, Matthews will likely score over 50 goals and 100 points. Marner should hit 100 points and Nylander will be around 40 and 90 in those categories. Rielly will log the most minutes on the blue line and supplement the offense with 50-60 points.

An unusual season for any of these players, either good or bad, will also influence the team’s success. The next, most critical determinant of their fortunes comes with the next tier of players.

First and foremost, on this list is captain John Tavares. After goaltending and the play of the young veterans, he is the biggest variable to the Leafs accomplishments.

Toronto Maple Leafs: John Tavares Self-Sustenance Key to Success

When former general manager Kyle Dubas signed Tavares as a free agent, he likely envisioned a championship within the first five years of the contract. He rightfully tried to augment his young stars with a proven, productive veteran player.

The championship, of course, hasn’t happened and years six and seven of the deal are about to come home to roost.

The team’s commitment to Tavares, along with his salary and no movement clause, has hindered the Leafs ability to spend elsewhere to improve their roster.

It was fitting that the homegrown Tavares netted the OT winner last year to help the Leafs finally clear the first-round hurdle in their victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Before that, however, chinks were beginning to show in Tavares’ armor.

Trade-deadline acquisition Ryan O’Reilly occasionally supplanted Tavares as the number two centre. Tavares was still a face-off menace, but at times was put on the wing.

He was productive during the first-round victory over the Lightning but contributed only a single assist during the Leafs elimination at the hands of the Florida Panthers in Round 2.

Another cause for concern is Tavares’ decline in 5v5 scoring. Almost half of his points last season came on the power play.

After scoring 33 5v5 goals during this inaugural season with the Leafs, he has not reached 20 even-strength goals since, though his 16 last year were the most since his 33 goal season. (All stats courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com.)

Where does all of this leave the Leafs?

He needs to continue his power-play proficiency, win face-offs, and continue to be a star during even-strength play, where last year, despite maybe not scoring as much as the Leafs would like, he was still a 54% xGoals player.

Should his play deteriorate significantly, the Leafs will once again be looking for a top-six forward preferably a center, to help them during the stretch run and into the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Tavares is a great ambassador for the Leafs, an exceptional team leader who is a good mentor for his younger teammates.

All of these are important attributes. Yet, his ability to fight off any decline in his play and remain productive, especially during 5 on-5, is critical to the success of the Toronto Maple Leafs during the next two years.