Toronto Maple Leafs Players Who Likely Won’t Be Returning

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a unique position at the moment where ten of their current roster players are set to become unrestricted free agents.

The Toronto Maple leafs will surely have a different look once the dust settles on free agency.

While nothing is certain at this point, especially while playoffs are ongoing, we should be able to determine the current crop of UFAs’ chances of returning to Toronto.

Here goes.

Toronto Maple Leafs Players Unlikely To Return

Forwards

Alexander Kerfoot

For years, some fans have been calling for the Leafs to move Alexander Kerfoot. That’s mostly due to his $3.5 million cap hit.

It will be coming off the books on July 1. If the Leafs were to re-sign Kerfoot, they would be trying to do it for less. It’s clear that There is a small chance that Kerfoot returns. Kyle Dubas is clearly a fan of Kerfoot’s so if he remains the team’s general manager, the chances of Kerfoot staying in Toronto grows.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 33%

Ryan O’Reilly

Ryan O’Reilly is the player the Toronto Maple Leafs will likely be most aggressive to re-sign. After having made a big splash in trading for him, the franchise will not want to see him walk. O’Reilly has played very well in the playoffs which is exactly why he was acquired. The Leafs will surely put forward a strong offer to The Factor.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 85%

David Kampf

Center David Kampf has been a solid performer for Toronto. The team will continue to need bottom six forwards. As a two-way player, Kampf can be a value addition for the Leafs if he returns at a similar price point. Conversations will certainly happen between the organization and Kampf’s camp.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 65%

Noel Acciari

It will be interesting to see what the Leafs do with Noel Acciari. He was another trade deadline pickup. However, unlike O’Reilly, Acciari isn’t a game changing player. He could be a depth piece but is far less likely to not return next season.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 35%

Michael Bunting

The most interesting of the Leafs’ UFAs has to be Michael Bunting. He has been a lightning rod of controversy as the NHL’s Stone Cold Steve Austin. With the extra attention he attracts from referees, the Buds will need to decide whether Bunting’s offense is worth the time he spends in the penalty box.

Thanks to Bunting having back-to-back seasons scoring over 20 goals, he is due a big raise. This season, he earned just $950k. While the organization would want to keep the left-winger, they will most likely use the space they would need for Bunting to keep O’Reilly.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 45%

Wayne Simmonds

If Toronto couldn’t find space for Wayne Simmonds even after Bunting was suspended for three games, there’s no reason to expect him to return for another year. He is strongly suspected to be retiring after the season.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 1% 

Zach Aston-Reese

Zach Aston-Reese has been a cheap fourth line player. He’s exactly what the Leafs will be looking for again next season. If the club and Aston-Reese can come to terms where he remains close to being paid league minimum, he could be on his way back to the Big Smoke.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 70%

Defensemen

While there are seven forwards who can potentially walk away in the offseason, the Maple Leafs need to address just three expiring contracts on the blue line.

Justin Holl

A big reason why the Maple Leafs fumbled the 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft was because of Dubas’s desire to keep Justin Holl. The time is almost upon us to see just how those feelings have held up since then.

Holl played himself out of the lineup in the opening round of the playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning. His egregious errors made him a liability at times. That’s not to say that Holl isn’t a fine NHL player. He is. Unfortunately, Holl has been branded by Leafs fans as someone who needs to leave town.

Holl can continue to earn $2 million a year, which is a fitting salary for what he brings to the ice. It just won’t be paid to him by the Maple Leafs next season and beyond.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 10%

Luke Schenn

Luke Schenn is not the same player he was on his first pass with the Leafs. The playoffs have proven that at age 33, he can still play and make things difficult for his opponents. Schenn has been a physical presence in the playoffs, a trait that was desperately needed in the organization.

The Leafs will likely try to work out a deal to continue keeping Schenn in blue and white. He currently carries a cap hit of $850k. If he’s willing to re-sign at that same value, there’s no way he’s going anywhere.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 60%

Erik Gustafsson

Erik Gustafsson joined the Toronto Maple Leafs as part of the return received for shipping Rasmus Sandin to the Washington Capitals. Gustafsson, at 31-year-old, was likely sought after to add another veteran presence for the playoffs.

Gustafsson, much like Schenn is a depth piece for the Leafs. However, unlike Schenn, Gustafsson is a fast skater. An upper body injury limited Gustafsson’s time in the first round.

His first time in the lineup was in Game 6 where he skated just 7:38 minutes of ice time. Just like with Schenn, the Leafs interest in Gustafsson will be his price tag. He can continue to be a bottom pairing player if he returns at close to league minimum.

Chance of remaining on the Toronto Maple Leafs: 50%