The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Up 3-1 on Tampa – What Now?

In the wake of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ stunning come-from-behind victory in game 4 of their playoff series with the Tampa Bay Lightning, many Leafs fans are giddy with joy, confidently proclaiming the series “over”.  Let’s dial that back a bit, big shooters.

I have recently written that this year’s Toronto Maple Leafs are different from previous versions (grittier, more experienced, not afraid, etc), and I fully believe that.  I’m confident in their ability to close out this series and finally journey to the promised land of round two.

BUT…..anything can happen in sports.

I got a personal reminder of that while watching “the big comeback” on Monday.  During the 2nd intermission, I thought to myself “what are the odds the Leafs come back from trailing 4-1 and win this game – maybe 20-1?”

Of course, we all saw Tampa cough up their late lead, just like we witnessed that same team outplay Toronto badly in game 3, and lose that one too.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Up 3-1 on Tampa – What Now?

We’re hearing a lot this week about “killer instinct” and whether or not the Toronto Maple Leafs possess that nebulous quality.

If any team could be said to have killer instinct, it would be the Tampa Bay Lightning, winners of two Stanley Cups in the last three years.  Other than the 7-2 blowout in game 2, the Lightning have played pretty well.  Yet they find themselves down three games to one.

What’s my point, I hear you ask?  Simply this. There is a sizeable amount of luck involved in winning a hockey game.

To put it differently, the Toronto Maple Leafs could come out blazing in game 5, play their hearts out, leave it all on the ice, and (insert your favourite cliché here), yet still lose.  Then it could happen again in game 6.  Then Andrei Vasilevskiy could withstand an absolute barrage and win game 7 for the Lightning all on his own.

This would not be a choke on Toronto’s part.  Just like last year’s defeat in 7 games was not a choke.  In a short series between two fairly evenly matched teams, you have a 50% chance of needing to book a tee-off time, pronto.

Does this mean Sheldon Keefe and his players should just cross their fingers and say a prayer to the hockey gods?  Of course not.  It’s still a fact that the better a team plays, the more likely they will win.

Keefe has to get his team to fully buy into “the process” (to steal a phrase from the NBA’s Sixers), as that is the ONLY thing they can control.  Forecheck.  Backcheck. No bad penalties. Crowd the front of the net (offensively and defensively). Play hard regardless of the score.

If the Toronto Maple Leafs do that, they will maximize their chances of overcoming any bad luck and winning game 5.

If the Lightning win and send the series back to Tampa Bay?  So be it.  Stick with the plan, don’t panic, believe in the process.  Coming back for game 7?  No need to overthink anything, execute the plan.

As fans, we can debate whether or not Michael Bunting should draw back into the lineup, and if so, who should come out.  We all have an opinion on whether the physical presence of Wayne Simmonds is needed yet, or whether Timothy Liljegren should get his chance to play.

Many of us will lose sleep, our voices, or even our minds if the Leafs don’t close this thing out quickly.  But the best thing the team itself can do is block out the fans, forget about history, ignore any inklings of impending doom, and just go out and play.